Trader consensus leans slightly against a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice—"Reconsider Nonessential Travel"—by December 31, 2026, with "No" at 55% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any active Level 3 alerts and recent issuances limited to Level 1 (global dengue, March 23) and Level 2 (meningococcal disease in DRC, March 24; yellow fever in Venezuela). Despite sustained A(H5N1) bird flu in wild birds and livestock, approximately 370 mpox cases in the US through March, and measles outbreaks (over 2,000 US cases in 2025 mostly outbreak-linked), no international events have met Level 3 criteria of high traveler risk with limited precautions. CDC's recent pause on mpox and bird flu diagnostics amid downsizing has further tempered escalation expectations, though new human transmission data or WHO-designated epidemics could shift odds; monitor weekly surveillance updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$96,256 交易量
$96,256 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$96,256 交易量
$96,256 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus leans slightly against a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice—"Reconsider Nonessential Travel"—by December 31, 2026, with "No" at 55% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any active Level 3 alerts and recent issuances limited to Level 1 (global dengue, March 23) and Level 2 (meningococcal disease in DRC, March 24; yellow fever in Venezuela). Despite sustained A(H5N1) bird flu in wild birds and livestock, approximately 370 mpox cases in the US through March, and measles outbreaks (over 2,000 US cases in 2025 mostly outbreak-linked), no international events have met Level 3 criteria of high traveler risk with limited precautions. CDC's recent pause on mpox and bird flu diagnostics amid downsizing has further tempered escalation expectations, though new human transmission data or WHO-designated epidemics could shift odds; monitor weekly surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ET
交易量
$96,256结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus leans slightly against a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice—"Reconsider Nonessential Travel"—by December 31, 2026, with "No" at 55% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any active Level 3 alerts and recent issuances limited to Level 1 (global dengue, March 23) and Level 2 (meningococcal disease in DRC, March 24; yellow fever in Venezuela). Despite sustained A(H5N1) bird flu in wild birds and livestock, approximately 370 mpox cases in the US through March, and measles outbreaks (over 2,000 US cases in 2025 mostly outbreak-linked), no international events have met Level 3 criteria of high traveler risk with limited precautions. CDC's recent pause on mpox and bird flu diagnostics amid downsizing has further tempered escalation expectations, though new human transmission data or WHO-designated epidemics could shift odds; monitor weekly surveillance updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC issues a Level 3 (“Reconsider Nonessential Travel”) Travel Health Notice for any disease by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A Level 3 notice listed for any amount of time during this market’s timeframe will suffice for a "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the CDC’s official Travel Health Notices page (https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/travel/notices); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$96,256结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:15 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus leans slightly against a CDC Level 3 Travel Health Notice—"Reconsider Nonessential Travel"—by December 31, 2026, with "No" at 55% implied probability, reflecting the absence of any active Level 3 alerts and recent issuances limited to Level 1 (global dengue, March 23) and Level 2 (meningococcal disease in DRC, March 24; yellow fever in Venezuela). Despite sustained A(H5N1) bird flu in wild birds and livestock, approximately 370 mpox cases in the US through March, and measles outbreaks (over 2,000 US cases in 2025 mostly outbreak-linked), no international events have met Level 3 criteria of high traveler risk with limited precautions. CDC's recent pause on mpox and bird flu diagnostics amid downsizing has further tempered escalation expectations, though new human transmission data or WHO-designated epidemics could shift odds; monitor weekly surveillance updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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