Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (38%) and one (42%) large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, reflecting Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing a historical global average of about 0.8 such events annually over the past six decades, consistent with Poisson-distributed rare events. No unusual uptick in magmatic activity has occurred in recent months—2024 has logged zero confirmed VEI ≥4 to date, with moderate unrest limited to sites like Kīlauea and Popocatépetl but lacking precursors for explosive escalation. Differentiating higher counts would require clustered activity from restless systems (e.g., seismic swarms or caldera inflation at Axial Seamount), though long-term forecasting remains impossible due to complex subsurface dynamics; USGS and international observatories provide ongoing monitoring updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于1 41%
0 38%
2 9.2%
3 4.7%
$637,807 交易量
$637,807 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
0
38%
1
41%
2
9%
3
5%
4
2%
5+
2%
1 41%
0 38%
2 9.2%
3 4.7%
$637,807 交易量
$637,807 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
0
$372,744 交易量
38%
1
$235,590 交易量
41%
2
$17,860 交易量
9%
3
$0 交易量
5%
4
$11,613 交易量
2%
5+
$0 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (38%) and one (42%) large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, reflecting Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing a historical global average of about 0.8 such events annually over the past six decades, consistent with Poisson-distributed rare events. No unusual uptick in magmatic activity has occurred in recent months—2024 has logged zero confirmed VEI ≥4 to date, with moderate unrest limited to sites like Kīlauea and Popocatépetl but lacking precursors for explosive escalation. Differentiating higher counts would require clustered activity from restless systems (e.g., seismic swarms or caldera inflation at Axial Seamount), though long-term forecasting remains impossible due to complex subsurface dynamics; USGS and international observatories provide ongoing monitoring updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
交易量
$637,807结束日期
Mar 31, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (38%) and one (42%) large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, reflecting Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing a historical global average of about 0.8 such events annually over the past six decades, consistent with Poisson-distributed rare events. No unusual uptick in magmatic activity has occurred in recent months—2024 has logged zero confirmed VEI ≥4 to date, with moderate unrest limited to sites like Kīlauea and Popocatépetl but lacking precursors for explosive escalation. Differentiating higher counts would require clustered activity from restless systems (e.g., seismic swarms or caldera inflation at Axial Seamount), though long-term forecasting remains impossible due to complex subsurface dynamics; USGS and international observatories provide ongoing monitoring updates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
交易量
$637,807结束日期
Mar 31, 2027市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between zero (38%) and one (42%) large volcanic eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index, or VEI, ≥4) in 2026, reflecting Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data showing a historical global average of about 0.8 such events annually over the past six decades, consistent with Poisson-distributed rare events. No unusual uptick in magmatic activity has occurred in recent months—2024 has logged zero confirmed VEI ≥4 to date, with moderate unrest limited to sites like Kīlauea and Popocatépetl but lacking precursors for explosive escalation. Differentiating higher counts would require clustered activity from restless systems (e.g., seismic swarms or caldera inflation at Axial Seamount), though long-term forecasting remains impossible due to complex subsurface dynamics; USGS and international observatories provide ongoing monitoring updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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