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美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?

Market icon

美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?

1% chance
Polymarket

$54,113 交易量

1% chance
Polymarket

$54,113 交易量

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and six others, concluded in January 2024 with low to moderate confidence that a foreign adversary is unlikely responsible for Havana Syndrome cases among diplomats and personnel, attributing most to preexisting conditions or environmental factors. A March 2024 NIH study found no evidence of unique brain injuries, further undermining claims of a specific device like pulsed microwave weapons. With the March 31 deadline approaching and no official announcements from the White House, State Department, or relevant agencies signaling confirmation, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99% "No," viewing structural barriers—such as contradictory medical evidence and prior interagency reviews—as precluding a reversal absent extraordinary late-breaking proof, like classified disclosures or new forensic data.

US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and six others, concluded in January 2024 with low to moderate confidence that a foreign adversary is unlikely responsible for Havana Syndrome cases among diplomats and personnel, attributing most to preexisting conditions or environmental factors. A March 2024 NIH study found no evidence of unique brain injuries, further undermining claims of a specific device like pulsed microwave weapons. With the March 31 deadline approaching and no official announcements from the White House, State Department, or relevant agencies signaling confirmation, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99% "No," viewing structural barriers—such as contradictory medical evidence and prior interagency reviews—as precluding a reversal absent extraordinary late-breaking proof, like classified disclosures or new forensic data.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any U.S. federal agency definitively states that a man-made device or weapon exists that is responsible for, or capable of causing, Havana Syndrome or Havana Syndrome-like symptoms by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and six others, concluded in January 2024 with low to moderate confidence that a foreign adversary is unlikely responsible for Havana Syndrome cases among diplomats and personnel, attributing most to preexisting conditions or environmental factors. A March 2024 NIH study found no evidence of unique brain injuries, further undermining claims of a specific device like pulsed microwave weapons. With the March 31 deadline approaching and no official announcements from the White House, State Department, or relevant agencies signaling confirmation, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99% "No," viewing structural barriers—such as contradictory medical evidence and prior interagency reviews—as precluding a reversal absent extraordinary late-breaking proof, like classified disclosures or new forensic data.

US intelligence agencies, including the CIA and six others, concluded in January 2024 with low to moderate confidence that a foreign adversary is unlikely responsible for Havana Syndrome cases among diplomats and personnel, attributing most to preexisting conditions or environmental factors. A March 2024 NIH study found no evidence of unique brain injuries, further undermining claims of a specific device like pulsed microwave weapons. With the March 31 deadline approaching and no official announcements from the White House, State Department, or relevant agencies signaling confirmation, traders reflect near-unanimous consensus at 99% "No," viewing structural barriers—such as contradictory medical evidence and prior interagency reviews—as precluding a reversal absent extraordinary late-breaking proof, like classified disclosures or new forensic data.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场,交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"美国是否将在3月31日前确认引发哈瓦那综合症的装置?",概率为 1%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如,价格为 1¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 1%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前,"美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?"已产生 $54.1K 的总交易量(自Jan 13, 2026市场上线以来)。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与,并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?"上交易,浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓,选择你认为最可能的结果,选择"是"支持或"否"反对,输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确,你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确,支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?"的当前领先者是"美国是否将在3月31日前确认引发哈瓦那综合症的装置?",仅有 1%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势,交易者认为这高度不确定,可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新,请将本页加入书签。

"美国在3月31日之前确认哈瓦那综合症致病装置?"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则,因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。