NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible risk of a 1-megaton bolide impact in 2026, with only two minuscule asteroids—2013 TP4 (11 meters) and 2023 BZ (16 meters)—listing cumulative probabilities below 4×10⁻⁵ and negligible energy output far under 1 megaton TNT equivalent. Recent safe close approaches, such as car-sized 2026 FM3 in late March at 148,000 miles and others in April, alongside ESA risk assessments showing zero significant threats, underpin trader consensus at 97.5% for "No." While comprehensive surveys like ATLAS detect over 90% of larger threats, undetected small bolides (20-30 meters) remain a slim possibility, statistically rarer than once per decade; ongoing fireball monitoring and NEO observations through year-end could detect any late surprises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$105,137 交易量
$105,137 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$105,137 交易量
$105,137 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible risk of a 1-megaton bolide impact in 2026, with only two minuscule asteroids—2013 TP4 (11 meters) and 2023 BZ (16 meters)—listing cumulative probabilities below 4×10⁻⁵ and negligible energy output far under 1 megaton TNT equivalent. Recent safe close approaches, such as car-sized 2026 FM3 in late March at 148,000 miles and others in April, alongside ESA risk assessments showing zero significant threats, underpin trader consensus at 97.5% for "No." While comprehensive surveys like ATLAS detect over 90% of larger threats, undetected small bolides (20-30 meters) remain a slim possibility, statistically rarer than once per decade; ongoing fireball monitoring and NEO observations through year-end could detect any late surprises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$105,137结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible risk of a 1-megaton bolide impact in 2026, with only two minuscule asteroids—2013 TP4 (11 meters) and 2023 BZ (16 meters)—listing cumulative probabilities below 4×10⁻⁵ and negligible energy output far under 1 megaton TNT equivalent. Recent safe close approaches, such as car-sized 2026 FM3 in late March at 148,000 miles and others in April, alongside ESA risk assessments showing zero significant threats, underpin trader consensus at 97.5% for "No." While comprehensive surveys like ATLAS detect over 90% of larger threats, undetected small bolides (20-30 meters) remain a slim possibility, statistically rarer than once per decade; ongoing fireball monitoring and NEO observations through year-end could detect any late surprises.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$105,137结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system confirms no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose a credible risk of a 1-megaton bolide impact in 2026, with only two minuscule asteroids—2013 TP4 (11 meters) and 2023 BZ (16 meters)—listing cumulative probabilities below 4×10⁻⁵ and negligible energy output far under 1 megaton TNT equivalent. Recent safe close approaches, such as car-sized 2026 FM3 in late March at 148,000 miles and others in April, alongside ESA risk assessments showing zero significant threats, underpin trader consensus at 97.5% for "No." While comprehensive surveys like ATLAS detect over 90% of larger threats, undetected small bolides (20-30 meters) remain a slim possibility, statistically rarer than once per decade; ongoing fireball monitoring and NEO observations through year-end could detect any late surprises.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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