Market icon
气候与科学·天气

到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？

Market icon
气候与科学·天气

到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？

分组项标题：8+ 56%

7 20%

6 16%

5 5.8%

Polymarket

$1,734,696 交易量

分组项标题：8+ 56%

7 20%

6 16%

5 5.8%

Polymarket

$1,734,696 交易量

4

$93,629 交易量

3%

5

$421,898 交易量

6%

6

$106,086 交易量

16%

7

$267,602 交易量

20%

分组项标题：8+

$518,252 交易量

56%

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 56.5% probability of 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by the year-to-date total reaching two events per USGS data—the February 22 M7.0 deep quake 55 km northwest of Kota Belud, Malaysia, and the fresh March 24 M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, both in active subduction zones. This positions odds above historical half-year averages of roughly 7–8 events, based on USGS long-term global seismicity rates of about 16 M7+ annually from plate boundary stresses. While seismic activity follows unpredictable Poisson-like distributions with high year-to-year variance, these recent tectonic releases signal sustained activity; traders await continuous USGS catalog updates for shifts in epicentral patterns or aftershocks that could accelerate the count.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 56.5% probability of 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by the year-to-date total reaching two events per USGS data—the February 22 M7.0 deep quake 55 km northwest of Kota Belud, Malaysia, and the fresh March 24 M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, both in active subduction zones. This positions odds above historical half-year averages of roughly 7–8 events, based on USGS long-term global seismicity rates of about 16 M7+ annually from plate boundary stresses. While seismic activity follows unpredictable Poisson-like distributions with high year-to-year variance, these recent tectonic releases signal sustained activity; traders await continuous USGS catalog updates for shifts in epicentral patterns or aftershocks that could accelerate the count.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between December 4, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 56.5% probability of 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by the year-to-date total reaching two events per USGS data—the February 22 M7.0 deep quake 55 km northwest of Kota Belud, Malaysia, and the fresh March 24 M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, both in active subduction zones. This positions odds above historical half-year averages of roughly 7–8 events, based on USGS long-term global seismicity rates of about 16 M7+ annually from plate boundary stresses. While seismic activity follows unpredictable Poisson-like distributions with high year-to-year variance, these recent tectonic releases signal sustained activity; traders await continuous USGS catalog updates for shifts in epicentral patterns or aftershocks that could accelerate the count.

Trader consensus on Polymarket implies an 56.5% probability of 8 or more magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes worldwide by June 30, 2026, driven by the year-to-date total reaching two events per USGS data—the February 22 M7.0 deep quake 55 km northwest of Kota Belud, Malaysia, and the fresh March 24 M7.5 event 166 km west of Neiafu, Tonga, both in active subduction zones. This positions odds above historical half-year averages of roughly 7–8 events, based on USGS long-term global seismicity rates of about 16 M7+ annually from plate boundary stresses. While seismic activity follows unpredictable Poisson-like distributions with high year-to-year variance, these recent tectonic releases signal sustained activity; traders await continuous USGS catalog updates for shifts in epicentral patterns or aftershocks that could accelerate the count.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 9 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"分组项标题：8+"，概率为 56%，其次是"7"，概率为 20%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 56¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 56%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？"已产生 $1.7 million 的总交易量（自Dec 4, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 9 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？"的当前领先者是"分组项标题：8+"，概率为 56%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 56%。紧随其后的结果是"7"，概率为 20%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"到6月30日， 7.0级或以上的地震有多少次？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。