Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race between 80–85 and 85–90 per 100,000 population cumulative flu hospitalization rates through Week 12 (late March 2026) via CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance, driven by the 2024–25 season's moderate trajectory—currently at around 15–20 per 100k through early weeks with H1N1 dominant and vaccine effectiveness estimated at 40–50% per CDC interim data. Differentiating factors include historical analogs like 2022–23's 47 per 100k peak versus higher-burden years (e.g., 2017–18 at 139), alongside uncertainties in late-season transmission boosted by waning immunity, RSV/COVID competition, and neutral ENSO conditions limiting cold snaps. Weekly FluView updates through spring will clarify if rates accelerate toward 90+ or stabilize below 80.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
Flu Hospitalization Rate Week 12, 2026?
90–95 50%
80–85 50%
85–90 50%
75–80 49%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
38%
75–80
49%
80–85
50%
85–90
50%
90–95
50%
95以上
39%
90–95 50%
80–85 50%
85–90 50%
75–80 49%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
<75
$0 交易量
38%
75–80
$0 交易量
49%
80–85
$0 交易量
50%
85–90
$0 交易量
50%
90–95
$0 交易量
50%
95以上
$0 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race between 80–85 and 85–90 per 100,000 population cumulative flu hospitalization rates through Week 12 (late March 2026) via CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance, driven by the 2024–25 season's moderate trajectory—currently at around 15–20 per 100k through early weeks with H1N1 dominant and vaccine effectiveness estimated at 40–50% per CDC interim data. Differentiating factors include historical analogs like 2022–23's 47 per 100k peak versus higher-burden years (e.g., 2017–18 at 139), alongside uncertainties in late-season transmission boosted by waning immunity, RSV/COVID competition, and neutral ENSO conditions limiting cold snaps. Weekly FluView updates through spring will clarify if rates accelerate toward 90+ or stabilize below 80.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
市场开放时间： Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Apr 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race between 80–85 and 85–90 per 100,000 population cumulative flu hospitalization rates through Week 12 (late March 2026) via CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance, driven by the 2024–25 season's moderate trajectory—currently at around 15–20 per 100k through early weeks with H1N1 dominant and vaccine effectiveness estimated at 40–50% per CDC interim data. Differentiating factors include historical analogs like 2022–23's 47 per 100k peak versus higher-burden years (e.g., 2017–18 at 139), alongside uncertainties in late-season transmission boosted by waning immunity, RSV/COVID competition, and neutral ENSO conditions limiting cold snaps. Weekly FluView updates through spring will clarify if rates accelerate toward 90+ or stabilize below 80.
This market will resolve according to the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported for the specified week.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
If the recorded data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET cumulative hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.
交易量
$0结束日期
Apr 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 27, 2026, 11:13 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a tight race between 80–85 and 85–90 per 100,000 population cumulative flu hospitalization rates through Week 12 (late March 2026) via CDC FluSurv-NET surveillance, driven by the 2024–25 season's moderate trajectory—currently at around 15–20 per 100k through early weeks with H1N1 dominant and vaccine effectiveness estimated at 40–50% per CDC interim data. Differentiating factors include historical analogs like 2022–23's 47 per 100k peak versus higher-burden years (e.g., 2017–18 at 139), alongside uncertainties in late-season transmission boosted by waning immunity, RSV/COVID competition, and neutral ENSO conditions limiting cold snaps. Weekly FluView updates through spring will clarify if rates accelerate toward 90+ or stabilize below 80.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题