Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service places April 2026 global surface air temperature at approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—fourth-warmest on record—driving 95.8% market-implied odds for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as traders anticipate alignment across datasets like NOAA and Berkeley Earth. This moderation from March's 1.48°C peak reflects fading El Niño effects, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures hitting records but overall ocean SST ranking second-warmest for April. UAH satellite lower troposphere readings at +0.39°C versus 1991-2020 corroborate the tempered anomaly amid ENSO transition to neutral conditions. Realistic challenges include 0.02–0.05°C upward revisions from late Arctic observations or baseline adjustments in final NCEI reports due mid-May; downward shifts unlikely given persistent high SSTs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2026年4月温度升高(ºC)
2026年4月温度升高(ºC)
1.15–1.19ºC 95.8%
1.20–1.24ºC 4.2%
1.10–1.14ºC 1.4%
>1.29ºC <1%
$333,562 交易量
$333,562 交易量
2026-05-10
<1.10ºC
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
4%
1.25–1.29ºC
<1%
>1.29ºC
1%
1.15–1.19ºC 95.8%
1.20–1.24ºC 4.2%
1.10–1.14ºC 1.4%
>1.29ºC <1%
$333,562 交易量
$333,562 交易量
2026-05-10
<1.10ºC
$54,938 交易量
<1%
1.10–1.14ºC
$61,450 交易量
1%
1.15–1.19ºC
$47,152 交易量
96%
1.20–1.24ºC
$67,972 交易量
4%
1.25–1.29ºC
$57,492 交易量
<1%
>1.29ºC
$44,568 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service places April 2026 global surface air temperature at approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—fourth-warmest on record—driving 95.8% market-implied odds for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as traders anticipate alignment across datasets like NOAA and Berkeley Earth. This moderation from March's 1.48°C peak reflects fading El Niño effects, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures hitting records but overall ocean SST ranking second-warmest for April. UAH satellite lower troposphere readings at +0.39°C versus 1991-2020 corroborate the tempered anomaly amid ENSO transition to neutral conditions. Realistic challenges include 0.02–0.05°C upward revisions from late Arctic observations or baseline adjustments in final NCEI reports due mid-May; downward shifts unlikely given persistent high SSTs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
市场开放时间： Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET
交易量
$333,562结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service places April 2026 global surface air temperature at approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—fourth-warmest on record—driving 95.8% market-implied odds for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as traders anticipate alignment across datasets like NOAA and Berkeley Earth. This moderation from March's 1.48°C peak reflects fading El Niño effects, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures hitting records but overall ocean SST ranking second-warmest for April. UAH satellite lower troposphere readings at +0.39°C versus 1991-2020 corroborate the tempered anomaly amid ENSO transition to neutral conditions. Realistic challenges include 0.02–0.05°C upward revisions from late Arctic observations or baseline adjustments in final NCEI reports due mid-May; downward shifts unlikely given persistent high SSTs.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$333,562结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service places April 2026 global surface air temperature at approximately 1.17°C above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial baseline—fourth-warmest on record—driving 95.8% market-implied odds for the 1.15–1.19ºC bin as traders anticipate alignment across datasets like NOAA and Berkeley Earth. This moderation from March's 1.48°C peak reflects fading El Niño effects, with equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures hitting records but overall ocean SST ranking second-warmest for April. UAH satellite lower troposphere readings at +0.39°C versus 1991-2020 corroborate the tempered anomaly amid ENSO transition to neutral conditions. Realistic challenges include 0.02–0.05°C upward revisions from late Arctic observations or baseline adjustments in final NCEI reports due mid-May; downward shifts unlikely given persistent high SSTs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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