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2026年4月温度升高(ºC)

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2026年4月温度升高(ºC)

5月 10

5月 10

1.15–1.19ºC 53%

1.20–1.24ºC 28%

1.10–1.14ºC 13%

1.25–1.29ºC 8%

Polymarket

$120,911 交易量

1.15–1.19ºC 53%

1.20–1.24ºC 28%

1.10–1.14ºC 13%

1.25–1.29ºC 8%

Polymarket

$120,911 交易量

<1.10ºC

$28,387 交易量

4%

1.10–1.14ºC

$23,018 交易量

13%

1.15–1.19ºC

$13,890 交易量

49%

1.20–1.24ºC

$15,823 交易量

28%

1.25–1.29ºC

$27,729 交易量

8%

>1.29ºC

$12,065 交易量

6%

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (43% implied probability) for April 2026, reflecting sustained warmth after March's fourth-hottest reading at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5 data, vs. 1850–1900 baseline). Near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March at 20.97ºC over 60°S–60°N) and current ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño 3.4 index at -0.2ºC, 80% chance through April–June per NOAA) underpin this positioning, as neutral phases limit cooling relative to prior La Niña influences. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis through mid-April shows continued above-average anomalies, though monthly variability persists. Watch for Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecast updates and full-month ERA5 release in late May.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$120,911
结束日期
2026-05-10
市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a global surface air temperature anomaly of 1.15–1.19ºC above pre-industrial levels (43% implied probability) for April 2026, reflecting sustained warmth after March's fourth-hottest reading at 1.48ºC (Copernicus ERA5 data, vs. 1850–1900 baseline). Near-record sea surface temperatures (second-highest for March at 20.97ºC over 60°S–60°N) and current ENSO-neutral conditions (Niño 3.4 index at -0.2ºC, 80% chance through April–June per NOAA) underpin this positioning, as neutral phases limit cooling relative to prior La Niña influences. Preliminary ERA5 reanalysis through mid-April shows continued above-average anomalies, though monthly variability persists. Watch for Copernicus multi-system seasonal forecast updates and full-month ERA5 release in late May.

This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released.

An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).

If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
交易量
$120,911
结束日期
2026-05-10
市场开放时间
Mar 23, 2026, 6:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for April 2026 when it is released. An anomaly within a named bracket for April 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for April 2026 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Apr" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for April 2026 is provided by NASA by June 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年4月温度升高(ºC)"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 6 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"1.15–1.19ºC"，概率为 49%，其次是"1.20–1.24ºC"，概率为 28%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 49¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 49%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年4月温度升高(ºC)"已产生 $120.9K 的总交易量（自Mar 23, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年4月温度升高(ºC)"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 6 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年4月温度升高(ºC)"的当前领先者是"1.15–1.19ºC"，概率为 49%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 49%。紧随其后的结果是"1.20–1.24ºC"，概率为 28%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年4月温度升高(ºC)"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。