Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 46% implied probability, reflecting the relentless anthropogenic warming trend—adding roughly 0.2°C per decade to global mean surface air temperatures—tempered by an emerging La Niña phase forecasted by NOAA to persist into 2026. Copernicus data confirmed 2024 as the warmest year ever at 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing 2023, yet La Niña's cooling influence (typically -0.1°C to -0.2°C globally) reduces odds of eclipsing that mark to 22.5% for first place. Top-four rankings dominate at over 85% due to elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and low volcanic aerosol interference, with model ensembles from ECMWF and UK Met Office projecting high chances of near-record heat. Watch December IRI/CPC ENSO update and Q1 2025 seasonal outlooks for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2 46%
1 23%
4 21%
3 8.6%
$2,015,229 交易量
$2,015,229 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
1
23%
2
46%
3
9%
4
21%
5
2%
6或以下
3%
2 46%
1 23%
4 21%
3 8.6%
$2,015,229 交易量
$2,015,229 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
1
$317,722 交易量
23%
2
$239,863 交易量
46%
3
$176,128 交易量
9%
4
$356,951 交易量
21%
5
$661,536 交易量
2%
6或以下
$263,030 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 46% implied probability, reflecting the relentless anthropogenic warming trend—adding roughly 0.2°C per decade to global mean surface air temperatures—tempered by an emerging La Niña phase forecasted by NOAA to persist into 2026. Copernicus data confirmed 2024 as the warmest year ever at 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing 2023, yet La Niña's cooling influence (typically -0.1°C to -0.2°C globally) reduces odds of eclipsing that mark to 22.5% for first place. Top-four rankings dominate at over 85% due to elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and low volcanic aerosol interference, with model ensembles from ECMWF and UK Met Office projecting high chances of near-record heat. Watch December IRI/CPC ENSO update and Q1 2025 seasonal outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,015,229结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 46% implied probability, reflecting the relentless anthropogenic warming trend—adding roughly 0.2°C per decade to global mean surface air temperatures—tempered by an emerging La Niña phase forecasted by NOAA to persist into 2026. Copernicus data confirmed 2024 as the warmest year ever at 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing 2023, yet La Niña's cooling influence (typically -0.1°C to -0.2°C globally) reduces odds of eclipsing that mark to 22.5% for first place. Top-four rankings dominate at over 85% due to elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and low volcanic aerosol interference, with model ensembles from ECMWF and UK Met Office projecting high chances of near-record heat. Watch December IRI/CPC ENSO update and Q1 2025 seasonal outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,015,229结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices 2026 as the second-hottest year on record at 46% implied probability, reflecting the relentless anthropogenic warming trend—adding roughly 0.2°C per decade to global mean surface air temperatures—tempered by an emerging La Niña phase forecasted by NOAA to persist into 2026. Copernicus data confirmed 2024 as the warmest year ever at 1.60°C above pre-industrial levels, surpassing 2023, yet La Niña's cooling influence (typically -0.1°C to -0.2°C globally) reduces odds of eclipsing that mark to 22.5% for first place. Top-four rankings dominate at over 85% due to elevated baseline warmth from greenhouse gases and low volcanic aerosol interference, with model ensembles from ECMWF and UK Met Office projecting high chances of near-record heat. Watch December IRI/CPC ENSO update and Q1 2025 seasonal outlooks for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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