Strong scientific consensus on the long-term warming trend from accumulating greenhouse gases positions 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, matching the 57.5% implied probability. Early 2026 global temperature anomalies tracked by NOAA and NASA remain elevated above the 20th-century baseline, though a shift toward La Niña conditions is expected to ease peak warmth relative to the 2023-2024 El Niño-driven records. This leaves a meaningful but secondary 35.5% chance for first place if current high baseline temperatures and regional heat patterns persist without offsetting volcanic or aerosol effects. Upcoming seasonal ENSO updates and mid-year observational releases will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6或以下 2.3%
$2,817,268 交易量
$2,817,268 交易量
2026-12-31
1
36%
2
57%
3
2%
4
3%
5
1%
6或以下
2%
2 57%
1 36%
4 2.8%
6或以下 2.3%
$2,817,268 交易量
$2,817,268 交易量
2026-12-31
1
$453,644 交易量
36%
2
$325,787 交易量
57%
3
$425,903 交易量
2%
4
$415,988 交易量
3%
5
$731,047 交易量
1%
6或以下
$464,899 交易量
2%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Strong scientific consensus on the long-term warming trend from accumulating greenhouse gases positions 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, matching the 57.5% implied probability. Early 2026 global temperature anomalies tracked by NOAA and NASA remain elevated above the 20th-century baseline, though a shift toward La Niña conditions is expected to ease peak warmth relative to the 2023-2024 El Niño-driven records. This leaves a meaningful but secondary 35.5% chance for first place if current high baseline temperatures and regional heat patterns persist without offsetting volcanic or aerosol effects. Upcoming seasonal ENSO updates and mid-year observational releases will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,817,268结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Strong scientific consensus on the long-term warming trend from accumulating greenhouse gases positions 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, matching the 57.5% implied probability. Early 2026 global temperature anomalies tracked by NOAA and NASA remain elevated above the 20th-century baseline, though a shift toward La Niña conditions is expected to ease peak warmth relative to the 2023-2024 El Niño-driven records. This leaves a meaningful but secondary 35.5% chance for first place if current high baseline temperatures and regional heat patterns persist without offsetting volcanic or aerosol effects. Upcoming seasonal ENSO updates and mid-year observational releases will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,817,268结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strong scientific consensus on the long-term warming trend from accumulating greenhouse gases positions 2026 as most likely the second-hottest year on record, matching the 57.5% implied probability. Early 2026 global temperature anomalies tracked by NOAA and NASA remain elevated above the 20th-century baseline, though a shift toward La Niña conditions is expected to ease peak warmth relative to the 2023-2024 El Niño-driven records. This leaves a meaningful but secondary 35.5% chance for first place if current high baseline temperatures and regional heat patterns persist without offsetting volcanic or aerosol effects. Upcoming seasonal ENSO updates and mid-year observational releases will provide key data points for refining these market-implied odds.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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