Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record, with 22.5% odds for the hottest, reflecting the unbroken streak of 11 consecutive record-warm years through 2025 amid accelerating anthropogenic warming. Copernicus and NOAA data confirm 2024 as the warmest, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest, just 0.01–0.13°C cooler than 2023), with global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.17–1.19°C above mid-20th-century baselines. Early 2026 shows warmth persisting—February was the fifth-hottest on record, early March top-five—despite lingering La Niña cooling effects now transitioning to ENSO-neutral (NOAA 55% through summer). Forecasts favor El Niño emergence by June–August (62% chance), potentially boosting second-half anomalies and elevating rankings, though model uncertainty in its strength tempers top probabilities. Monthly Copernicus and NOAA updates will refine trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于2 45%
1 23%
4 21%
3 8.8%
$2,015,498 交易量
$2,015,498 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
1
23%
2
45%
3
9%
4
21%
5
2%
6或以下
3%
2 45%
1 23%
4 21%
3 8.8%
$2,015,498 交易量
$2,015,498 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
1
$317,839 交易量
23%
2
$239,917 交易量
45%
3
$176,143 交易量
9%
4
$356,971 交易量
21%
5
$661,584 交易量
2%
6或以下
$263,044 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record, with 22.5% odds for the hottest, reflecting the unbroken streak of 11 consecutive record-warm years through 2025 amid accelerating anthropogenic warming. Copernicus and NOAA data confirm 2024 as the warmest, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest, just 0.01–0.13°C cooler than 2023), with global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.17–1.19°C above mid-20th-century baselines. Early 2026 shows warmth persisting—February was the fifth-hottest on record, early March top-five—despite lingering La Niña cooling effects now transitioning to ENSO-neutral (NOAA 55% through summer). Forecasts favor El Niño emergence by June–August (62% chance), potentially boosting second-half anomalies and elevating rankings, though model uncertainty in its strength tempers top probabilities. Monthly Copernicus and NOAA updates will refine trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$2,015,498结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record, with 22.5% odds for the hottest, reflecting the unbroken streak of 11 consecutive record-warm years through 2025 amid accelerating anthropogenic warming. Copernicus and NOAA data confirm 2024 as the warmest, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest, just 0.01–0.13°C cooler than 2023), with global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.17–1.19°C above mid-20th-century baselines. Early 2026 shows warmth persisting—February was the fifth-hottest on record, early March top-five—despite lingering La Niña cooling effects now transitioning to ENSO-neutral (NOAA 55% through summer). Forecasts favor El Niño emergence by June–August (62% chance), potentially boosting second-half anomalies and elevating rankings, though model uncertainty in its strength tempers top probabilities. Monthly Copernicus and NOAA updates will refine trajectories.
This market will resolve according to the numerical rank of how hot 2026 is when compared against all other years for which the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index has data.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Years will be ranked in descending order, starting with the hottest as number 1, the second hottest as number 2, etc.
If 2026 ties with any other year, it will resolve according to the place the year it ties with occupies.
This market will resolve immediately once the specified data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for the relevant years is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2026 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$2,015,498结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 12, 2025, 5:44 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 45.5% probability that 2026 will rank as the second-hottest year on record, with 22.5% odds for the hottest, reflecting the unbroken streak of 11 consecutive record-warm years through 2025 amid accelerating anthropogenic warming. Copernicus and NOAA data confirm 2024 as the warmest, followed closely by 2023 and 2025 (third-warmest, just 0.01–0.13°C cooler than 2023), with global surface air temperatures averaging around 1.17–1.19°C above mid-20th-century baselines. Early 2026 shows warmth persisting—February was the fifth-hottest on record, early March top-five—despite lingering La Niña cooling effects now transitioning to ENSO-neutral (NOAA 55% through summer). Forecasts favor El Niño emergence by June–August (62% chance), potentially boosting second-half anomalies and elevating rankings, though model uncertainty in its strength tempers top probabilities. Monthly Copernicus and NOAA updates will refine trajectories.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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