Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys confirm 63 US tornadoes to date—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—positioning trader consensus around 170–199 (31.5%) and 200–229 (27.5%) amid uncertainty in the remaining 12 days. Recent outbreaks on April 13–14, featuring EF3 tornadoes across Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, reflect clashing Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 2000 J/kg, and strong vertical wind shear, spreading activity northward per climatological norms. Higher bins hinge on sustained mid-level troughs and helicity for multiple supercell episodes; lower outcomes depend on ridge dominance quieting setups. Storm Prediction Center outlooks through April 30 will clarify outbreak potential, with final NOAA counts resolving post-surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于4月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
4月份美国有多少次龙卷风？
170–199 43%
200–229 31%
260–289 27%
320–350 24.3%
$38,971 交易量
$38,971 交易量
2026-05-10
少于140
8%
140–169
18%
170–199
35%
200–229
31%
230–259
24%
260–289
25%
290–319
7%
320–350
17%
350+
4%
170–199 43%
200–229 31%
260–289 27%
320–350 24.3%
$38,971 交易量
$38,971 交易量
2026-05-10
少于140
$8,954 交易量
8%
140–169
$6,638 交易量
18%
170–199
$450 交易量
35%
200–229
$129 交易量
31%
230–259
$125 交易量
24%
260–289
$132 交易量
25%
290–319
$328 交易量
7%
320–350
$184 交易量
17%
350+
$22,032 交易量
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys confirm 63 US tornadoes to date—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—positioning trader consensus around 170–199 (31.5%) and 200–229 (27.5%) amid uncertainty in the remaining 12 days. Recent outbreaks on April 13–14, featuring EF3 tornadoes across Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, reflect clashing Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 2000 J/kg, and strong vertical wind shear, spreading activity northward per climatological norms. Higher bins hinge on sustained mid-level troughs and helicity for multiple supercell episodes; lower outcomes depend on ridge dominance quieting setups. Storm Prediction Center outlooks through April 30 will clarify outbreak potential, with final NOAA counts resolving post-surveys.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$38,971结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys confirm 63 US tornadoes to date—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—positioning trader consensus around 170–199 (31.5%) and 200–229 (27.5%) amid uncertainty in the remaining 12 days. Recent outbreaks on April 13–14, featuring EF3 tornadoes across Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, reflect clashing Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 2000 J/kg, and strong vertical wind shear, spreading activity northward per climatological norms. Higher bins hinge on sustained mid-level troughs and helicity for multiple supercell episodes; lower outcomes depend on ridge dominance quieting setups. Storm Prediction Center outlooks through April 30 will clarify outbreak potential, with final NOAA counts resolving post-surveys.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on May 8, 2026, at 5:00 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
交易量
$38,971结束日期
2026-05-10市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Midway through April 2026, National Weather Service surveys confirm 63 US tornadoes to date—well below the 1991–2020 monthly average of 182—positioning trader consensus around 170–199 (31.5%) and 200–229 (27.5%) amid uncertainty in the remaining 12 days. Recent outbreaks on April 13–14, featuring EF3 tornadoes across Kansas, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Oklahoma, reflect clashing Gulf moisture, high convective available potential energy (CAPE) exceeding 2000 J/kg, and strong vertical wind shear, spreading activity northward per climatological norms. Higher bins hinge on sustained mid-level troughs and helicity for multiple supercell episodes; lower outcomes depend on ridge dominance quieting setups. Storm Prediction Center outlooks through April 30 will clarify outbreak potential, with final NOAA counts resolving post-surveys.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题