Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by overwhelming geological evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that such an event is physically implausible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, event at 9.5 magnitude, as the planet's tectonic plates and fault rupture lengths impose hard limits— a 10.0 would require an impossibly long fault exceeding Earth's circumference and energy release risking planetary disruption. No modern seismic monitoring or strain accumulation data signals any precursor to such extremes, with recent major quakes (e.g., 7.8 Turkey 2023) far below this threshold. Realistic challenges include undetected mega-thrust buildup in remote subduction zones or asteroid-induced seismicity, though USGS real-time global networks make surprises unlikely; ongoing monitoring provides continuous updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$521,410 交易量
$521,410 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$521,410 交易量
$521,410 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by overwhelming geological evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that such an event is physically implausible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, event at 9.5 magnitude, as the planet's tectonic plates and fault rupture lengths impose hard limits— a 10.0 would require an impossibly long fault exceeding Earth's circumference and energy release risking planetary disruption. No modern seismic monitoring or strain accumulation data signals any precursor to such extremes, with recent major quakes (e.g., 7.8 Turkey 2023) far below this threshold. Realistic challenges include undetected mega-thrust buildup in remote subduction zones or asteroid-induced seismicity, though USGS real-time global networks make surprises unlikely; ongoing monitoring provides continuous updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
市场开放时间： Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
交易量
$521,410结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by overwhelming geological evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that such an event is physically implausible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, event at 9.5 magnitude, as the planet's tectonic plates and fault rupture lengths impose hard limits— a 10.0 would require an impossibly long fault exceeding Earth's circumference and energy release risking planetary disruption. No modern seismic monitoring or strain accumulation data signals any precursor to such extremes, with recent major quakes (e.g., 7.8 Turkey 2023) far below this threshold. Realistic challenges include undetected mega-thrust buildup in remote subduction zones or asteroid-induced seismicity, though USGS real-time global networks make surprises unlikely; ongoing monitoring provides continuous updates.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
交易量
$521,410结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 94.5% implied probability for no magnitude 10.0 or greater earthquake before 2027, driven by overwhelming geological evidence from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) that such an event is physically implausible on Earth. The largest recorded quake remains the 1960 Valdivia, Chile, event at 9.5 magnitude, as the planet's tectonic plates and fault rupture lengths impose hard limits— a 10.0 would require an impossibly long fault exceeding Earth's circumference and energy release risking planetary disruption. No modern seismic monitoring or strain accumulation data signals any precursor to such extremes, with recent major quakes (e.g., 7.8 Turkey 2023) far below this threshold. Realistic challenges include undetected mega-thrust buildup in remote subduction zones or asteroid-induced seismicity, though USGS real-time global networks make surprises unlikely; ongoing monitoring provides continuous updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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