Market icon
科技·文化

2026年人类登月？

Market icon
科技·文化

2026年人类登月？

是

4% chance
Polymarket

$1,869,511 交易量

是

4% chance
Polymarket

$1,869,511 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with "No" at 96.2% implied probability for a human moon landing in 2026, anchored by NASA's Artemis III mission slipping repeatedly to no earlier than September 2026 amid SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) challenges. A June 2024 Government Accountability Office report flagged high risks of further delays due to unproven orbital refueling demos, in-space rendezvous, and lunar descent tech—capabilities yet to be flight-proven despite Starship's IFT-4 successes like the booster catch. No other nations have viable 2026 crewed lunar plans. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpectedly rapid Starship test progress enabling FAA certification acceleration or private initiatives, but technical setbacks, supply chain issues, or budget constraints maintain strong trader skepticism heading into fall flight tests.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,869,511
结束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Polymarket traders reflect near-certain consensus with "No" at 96.2% implied probability for a human moon landing in 2026, anchored by NASA's Artemis III mission slipping repeatedly to no earlier than September 2026 amid SpaceX Starship Human Landing System (HLS) challenges. A June 2024 Government Accountability Office report flagged high risks of further delays due to unproven orbital refueling demos, in-space rendezvous, and lunar descent tech—capabilities yet to be flight-proven despite Starship's IFT-4 successes like the booster catch. No other nations have viable 2026 crewed lunar plans. Realistic shifts could stem from unexpectedly rapid Starship test progress enabling FAA certification acceleration or private initiatives, but technical setbacks, supply chain issues, or budget constraints maintain strong trader skepticism heading into fall flight tests.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any human-crewed mission lands on the moon between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A touchdown of the spacecraft with humans aboard will be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of technical complications.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,869,511
结束日期
Dec 31, 2026
市场开放时间
Jan 7, 2026, 4:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

警惕外部链接哦。

常见问题

"2026年人类登月？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年人类登月？"，概率为 4%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 4¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 4%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年人类登月？"已产生 $1.9 million 的总交易量（自Jan 7, 2026市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年人类登月？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

这是一个非常开放的市场。"2026年人类登月？"的当前领先者是"2026年人类登月？"，仅有 4%。由于没有任何结果占据明显优势，交易者认为这高度不确定，可能带来独特的交易机会。这些赔率实时更新，请将本页加入书签。

"2026年人类登月？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。