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气候与科学·科学

2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？

Market icon
气候与科学·科学

2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？

是

11% chance
Polymarket

$37,695 交易量

是

11% chance
Polymarket

$37,695 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors at monitored sites. VEI ≥6 eruptions, comparable to Pinatubo in 1991, occur globally roughly once every 50–100 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. No active volcano— including Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, or Taal—shows elevated seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma accumulation for Plinian-scale blasts, per USGS and international observatories. Recent developments, like Iceland's ongoing Reykjanes activity (VEI ≤3), remain far below this threshold. Traders await quarterly monitoring updates, but baseline geological stability underpins the strong "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors at monitored sites. VEI ≥6 eruptions, comparable to Pinatubo in 1991, occur globally roughly once every 50–100 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. No active volcano— including Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, or Taal—shows elevated seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma accumulation for Plinian-scale blasts, per USGS and international observatories. Recent developments, like Iceland's ongoing Reykjanes activity (VEI ≤3), remain far below this threshold. Traders await quarterly monitoring updates, but baseline geological stability underpins the strong "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus. Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors at monitored sites. VEI ≥6 eruptions, comparable to Pinatubo in 1991, occur globally roughly once every 50–100 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. No active volcano— including Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, or Taal—shows elevated seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma accumulation for Plinian-scale blasts, per USGS and international observatories. Recent developments, like Iceland's ongoing Reykjanes activity (VEI ≤3), remain far below this threshold. Traders await quarterly monitoring updates, but baseline geological stability underpins the strong "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.

Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects an 89% implied probability for no major volcano eruption reaching Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) ≥6 in 2026, driven by the extreme rarity of such events and absence of precursors at monitored sites. VEI ≥6 eruptions, comparable to Pinatubo in 1991, occur globally roughly once every 50–100 years based on historical records from the Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program. No active volcano— including Yellowstone, Campi Flegrei, or Taal—shows elevated seismic swarms, significant ground deformation, or gas emissions signaling magma accumulation for Plinian-scale blasts, per USGS and international observatories. Recent developments, like Iceland's ongoing Reykjanes activity (VEI ≤3), remain far below this threshold. Traders await quarterly monitoring updates, but baseline geological stability underpins the strong "No" positioning amid inherent forecasting uncertainties.

基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于

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常见问题

"2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？"是 Polymarket 上一个拥有 2 个可能结果的预测市场，交易者根据自己的判断买卖份额。当前领先结果为"2026年会发生大型火山喷发（VEI≥6）吗？"，概率为 11%。价格反映社区的实时概率。例如，价格为 11¢ 的份额意味着市场集体认为该结果的概率为 11%。这些赔率会随着交易者的反应而不断变化。正确结果的份额在市场结算时可兑换为每份 $1。

截至目前，"2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？"已产生 $37.7K 的总交易量（自Dec 29, 2025市场上线以来）。这一活跃度反映了 Polymarket 社区的高度参与，并确保当前赔率由广泛的市场参与者共同形成。你可以直接在本页追踪实时价格变动并交易任何结果。

要在"2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？"上交易，浏览本页上列出的 2 个可用结果。每个结果显示一个代表市场隐含概率的当前价格。要建仓，选择你认为最可能的结果，选择"是"支持或"否"反对，输入金额并点击"交易"。如果你选择的结果在市场结算时正确，你的"是"份额每份支付 $1。如果不正确，支付 $0。你也可以在结算前随时卖出份额。

"2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？"的当前领先者是"2026年会发生大型火山喷发（VEI≥6）吗？"，概率为 11%，意味着市场对该结果的概率评估为 11%。这些赔率随着交易者买卖份额而实时更新。请经常回来查看或将本页加入书签。

"2026年大火山爆发（ VEI ≥ 6 ） ？"的结算规则明确定义了每个结果被宣布为获胜者所需满足的条件——包括用于确定结果的官方数据来源。你可以在本页评论上方的"规则"部分查看完整的结算标准。我们建议在交易前仔细阅读规则，因为它们规定了精确的条件、特殊情况和数据来源。