Latest short-range forecast models, including those from the China Meteorological Administration and global ensembles like ECMWF and GFS, place Chengdu's March 29 high temperature in a tight 19–21°C range, fueling the closely matched trader consensus with 21°C or higher at 29%, 19°C at 23%, and 20°C at 20%. This spread reflects uncertainty in peak solar insolation amid post-frontal clearing skies over the Sichuan Basin, where urban heat island effects could push maxima higher under sustained sunshine, while patchy mid-level clouds or light northerly winds might limit warming to 19°C. Recent observations show daytime highs climbing above seasonal norms of 17°C following a cold air mass departure earlier this week, with model updates expected through the day to sharpen resolution probabilities.