Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Munich's highest temperature on March 29, with models clustering around 6–9°C amid a cool northerly airflow. Latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) ensemble runs show a mean high near 7°C, driven by persistent low-pressure systems over central Europe pulling Arctic air southward, suppressing highs below seasonal norms of 10–12°C. GFS models diverge slightly warmer at 8–9°C due to potential ridging, while historical late-March volatility in the Alps adds spread. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and diurnal mixing; traders await 00Z model refreshers for resolution clarity as the date nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Munich on March 29?
Highest temperature in Munich on March 29?
7°C 30%
8°C 22%
6°C 20%
4°C 7%
2°C or below
2%
3°C
6%
4°C
7%
5°C
7%
6°C
20%
7°C
30%
8°C
22%
9°C
10%
10°C
5%
11°C
4%
12°C or higher
3%
7°C 30%
8°C 22%
6°C 20%
4°C 7%
2°C or below
2%
3°C
6%
4°C
7%
5°C
7%
6°C
20%
7°C
30%
8°C
22%
9°C
10%
10°C
5%
11°C
4%
12°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Munich Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 25, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDMResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects high uncertainty for Munich's highest temperature on March 29, with models clustering around 6–9°C amid a cool northerly airflow. Latest European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and German Weather Service (DWD) ensemble runs show a mean high near 7°C, driven by persistent low-pressure systems over central Europe pulling Arctic air southward, suppressing highs below seasonal norms of 10–12°C. GFS models diverge slightly warmer at 8–9°C due to potential ridging, while historical late-March volatility in the Alps adds spread. Key differentiators include cloud cover evolution and diurnal mixing; traders await 00Z model refreshers for resolution clarity as the date nears.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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