NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre maintain comprehensive catalogs of over 35,000 near-Earth objects, with zero objects on the Sentry Impact Risk Table showing even a remote chance of Earth impact in 2026 at 100 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater. This drives the market's 95.7% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on robust planetary defense surveillance via telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, which detect most potential bolides larger than 20 meters weeks in advance. Such events occur roughly once every 5–10 years historically, like the 500-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013, making a 2026 strike statistically improbable absent an undetected small, fast-moving object. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise discoveries in upcoming survey data releases, though current models assign negligible risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre maintain comprehensive catalogs of over 35,000 near-Earth objects, with zero objects on the Sentry Impact Risk Table showing even a remote chance of Earth impact in 2026 at 100 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater. This drives the market's 95.7% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on robust planetary defense surveillance via telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, which detect most potential bolides larger than 20 meters weeks in advance. Such events occur roughly once every 5–10 years historically, like the 500-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013, making a 2026 strike statistically improbable absent an undetected small, fast-moving object. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise discoveries in upcoming survey data releases, though current models assign negligible risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$5,628结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre maintain comprehensive catalogs of over 35,000 near-Earth objects, with zero objects on the Sentry Impact Risk Table showing even a remote chance of Earth impact in 2026 at 100 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater. This drives the market's 95.7% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on robust planetary defense surveillance via telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, which detect most potential bolides larger than 20 meters weeks in advance. Such events occur roughly once every 5–10 years historically, like the 500-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013, making a 2026 strike statistically improbable absent an undetected small, fast-moving object. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise discoveries in upcoming survey data releases, though current models assign negligible risk.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$5,628结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and the European Space Agency's NEO Coordination Centre maintain comprehensive catalogs of over 35,000 near-Earth objects, with zero objects on the Sentry Impact Risk Table showing even a remote chance of Earth impact in 2026 at 100 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater. This drives the market's 95.7% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on robust planetary defense surveillance via telescopes like Pan-STARRS and ATLAS, which detect most potential bolides larger than 20 meters weeks in advance. Such events occur roughly once every 5–10 years historically, like the 500-kiloton Chelyabinsk airburst in 2013, making a 2026 strike statistically improbable absent an undetected small, fast-moving object. Realistic shifts could arise from surprise discoveries in upcoming survey data releases, though current models assign negligible risk.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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