NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system drives the 94.6% market-implied probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026, listing no credible impactors—only two tiny objects like (2013 TP4) with probabilities under 0.004% and zero on the Torino Scale. Comprehensive NEO surveys catalog over 95% of potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 meters, ruling out city-scale threats. Early 2026's fireball surge over regions like Houston and Lake Erie produced airbursts below 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, far short of the threshold. Realistic challenges include a rare, undetected small bolide akin to Chelyabinsk's 500-kiloton event, though statistical frequency for 100kt+ events is roughly once per decade; continuous monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS provides ongoing updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system drives the 94.6% market-implied probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026, listing no credible impactors—only two tiny objects like (2013 TP4) with probabilities under 0.004% and zero on the Torino Scale. Comprehensive NEO surveys catalog over 95% of potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 meters, ruling out city-scale threats. Early 2026's fireball surge over regions like Houston and Lake Erie produced airbursts below 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, far short of the threshold. Realistic challenges include a rare, undetected small bolide akin to Chelyabinsk's 500-kiloton event, though statistical frequency for 100kt+ events is roughly once per decade; continuous monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS provides ongoing updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$7,224结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system drives the 94.6% market-implied probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026, listing no credible impactors—only two tiny objects like (2013 TP4) with probabilities under 0.004% and zero on the Torino Scale. Comprehensive NEO surveys catalog over 95% of potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 meters, ruling out city-scale threats. Early 2026's fireball surge over regions like Houston and Lake Erie produced airbursts below 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, far short of the threshold. Realistic challenges include a rare, undetected small bolide akin to Chelyabinsk's 500-kiloton event, though statistical frequency for 100kt+ events is roughly once per decade; continuous monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS provides ongoing updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$7,224结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies Sentry system drives the 94.6% market-implied probability against a 100-kiloton meteor strike in 2026, listing no credible impactors—only two tiny objects like (2013 TP4) with probabilities under 0.004% and zero on the Torino Scale. Comprehensive NEO surveys catalog over 95% of potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 meters, ruling out city-scale threats. Early 2026's fireball surge over regions like Houston and Lake Erie produced airbursts below 1 kiloton TNT equivalent, far short of the threshold. Realistic challenges include a rare, undetected small bolide akin to Chelyabinsk's 500-kiloton event, though statistical frequency for 100kt+ events is roughly once per decade; continuous monitoring by Pan-STARRS and ATLAS provides ongoing updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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