NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Impact Risk Table lists no credible threats for a 100 kiloton airburst meteor strike in 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible impact probabilities below 0.004%, both likely to be ruled out by further observations. This scientific monitoring, covering most larger near-Earth objects (NEOs), underpins the market's strong 92.8% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the rarity of such events, akin to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor (440 kt). Recent minor fireballs, like the March 17 Cleveland event (0.25 kt) and March 21 Texas bolide, highlight frequent small impacts but none approaching 100 kt threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid, as surveys miss many small NEOs; ongoing optical and radar scans provide next data updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Impact Risk Table lists no credible threats for a 100 kiloton airburst meteor strike in 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible impact probabilities below 0.004%, both likely to be ruled out by further observations. This scientific monitoring, covering most larger near-Earth objects (NEOs), underpins the market's strong 92.8% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the rarity of such events, akin to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor (440 kt). Recent minor fireballs, like the March 17 Cleveland event (0.25 kt) and March 21 Texas bolide, highlight frequent small impacts but none approaching 100 kt threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid, as surveys miss many small NEOs; ongoing optical and radar scans provide next data updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$6,247结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Impact Risk Table lists no credible threats for a 100 kiloton airburst meteor strike in 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible impact probabilities below 0.004%, both likely to be ruled out by further observations. This scientific monitoring, covering most larger near-Earth objects (NEOs), underpins the market's strong 92.8% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the rarity of such events, akin to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor (440 kt). Recent minor fireballs, like the March 17 Cleveland event (0.25 kt) and March 21 Texas bolide, highlight frequent small impacts but none approaching 100 kt threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid, as surveys miss many small NEOs; ongoing optical and radar scans provide next data updates.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$6,247结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry Impact Risk Table lists no credible threats for a 100 kiloton airburst meteor strike in 2026, with only two tiny objects—11-meter (2013 TP4) and 16-meter (2023 BZ)—carrying negligible impact probabilities below 0.004%, both likely to be ruled out by further observations. This scientific monitoring, covering most larger near-Earth objects (NEOs), underpins the market's strong 92.8% implied probability for "No," reflecting trader consensus on the rarity of such events, akin to the 2013 Chelyabinsk meteor (440 kt). Recent minor fireballs, like the March 17 Cleveland event (0.25 kt) and March 21 Texas bolide, highlight frequent small impacts but none approaching 100 kt threshold. Realistic challenges include an undetected sub-30-meter asteroid, as surveys miss many small NEOs; ongoing optical and radar scans provide next data updates.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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