Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre confirming no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose impact risks this year. Recent safe close approaches—including house-sized 2026 GD in April and 18-41 meter 2026 HE2 on May 3—underscore the efficacy of planetary defense monitoring, with all objects cataloged as non-hazardous via Sentry risk assessments. Historical data shows such bolides occur roughly once per decade, often from small, undetected meteors, but enhanced telescope surveys like those from NASA's NEO Surveyor mission bolster detection confidence. Traders eye continued observations through year-end for any late discoveries, though baseline rarity sustains the strong "No" lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$150,643 交易量
$150,643 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$150,643 交易量
$150,643 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre confirming no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose impact risks this year. Recent safe close approaches—including house-sized 2026 GD in April and 18-41 meter 2026 HE2 on May 3—underscore the efficacy of planetary defense monitoring, with all objects cataloged as non-hazardous via Sentry risk assessments. Historical data shows such bolides occur roughly once per decade, often from small, undetected meteors, but enhanced telescope surveys like those from NASA's NEO Surveyor mission bolster detection confidence. Traders eye continued observations through year-end for any late discoveries, though baseline rarity sustains the strong "No" lead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市场开放时间： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$150,643结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre confirming no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose impact risks this year. Recent safe close approaches—including house-sized 2026 GD in April and 18-41 meter 2026 HE2 on May 3—underscore the efficacy of planetary defense monitoring, with all objects cataloged as non-hazardous via Sentry risk assessments. Historical data shows such bolides occur roughly once per decade, often from small, undetected meteors, but enhanced telescope surveys like those from NASA's NEO Surveyor mission bolster detection confidence. Traders eye continued observations through year-end for any late discoveries, though baseline rarity sustains the strong "No" lead.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$150,643结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors "No" at 84.5% implied probability for a major meteor strike exceeding 10 kilotons in 2026, driven by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) and ESA's NEO Coordination Centre confirming no tracked near-Earth objects (NEOs) pose impact risks this year. Recent safe close approaches—including house-sized 2026 GD in April and 18-41 meter 2026 HE2 on May 3—underscore the efficacy of planetary defense monitoring, with all objects cataloged as non-hazardous via Sentry risk assessments. Historical data shows such bolides occur roughly once per decade, often from small, undetected meteors, but enhanced telescope surveys like those from NASA's NEO Surveyor mission bolster detection confidence. Traders eye continued observations through year-end for any late discoveries, though baseline rarity sustains the strong "No" lead.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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