Trader consensus strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental US by May 31, with 94.3% market-implied odds on "No," driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest advisories showing tranquil Atlantic conditions—no tropical depressions or storms forming amid high vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures still warming toward seasonal peaks. The official hurricane season begins June 1, and comprehensive records since 1851 reveal zero instances of a Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ hurricane striking the US mainland in May, underscoring climatological rarity. NOAA's seasonal outlook anticipates above-normal activity later but none imminent. While rare scenarios like explosive development from a subtropical disturbance could challenge this, NHC model guidance shows low probabilities; watch daily tropical weather outlooks for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
是
NEW
NEW
May 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental US by May 31, with 94.3% market-implied odds on "No," driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest advisories showing tranquil Atlantic conditions—no tropical depressions or storms forming amid high vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures still warming toward seasonal peaks. The official hurricane season begins June 1, and comprehensive records since 1851 reveal zero instances of a Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ hurricane striking the US mainland in May, underscoring climatological rarity. NOAA's seasonal outlook anticipates above-normal activity later but none imminent. While rare scenarios like explosive development from a subtropical disturbance could challenge this, NHC model guidance shows low probabilities; watch daily tropical weather outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
市场开放时间： Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ET
交易量
$9,194结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.Trader consensus strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental US by May 31, with 94.3% market-implied odds on "No," driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest advisories showing tranquil Atlantic conditions—no tropical depressions or storms forming amid high vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures still warming toward seasonal peaks. The official hurricane season begins June 1, and comprehensive records since 1851 reveal zero instances of a Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ hurricane striking the US mainland in May, underscoring climatological rarity. NOAA's seasonal outlook anticipates above-normal activity later but none imminent. While rare scenarios like explosive development from a subtropical disturbance could challenge this, NHC model guidance shows low probabilities; watch daily tropical weather outlooks for shifts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a hurricane makes landfall in the conterminous United States within this market's timeframe, between December 4, 2025, and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET as described in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2025/). If no tropical systems make landfall in the conterminous United States at hurricane status within this market's timeframe, this market will resolve to "No".
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
This market may only resolve to "No" after May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET if the conditions for a "Yes" resolution have not been met.
For the purpose of this market, a hurricane landfall is said to occur when a hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL , and the NHC officially reports that the storm has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or higher at the time of landfall.
This market will resolve based on an initial advisory released by the NHC that a hurricane has made landfall within the conterminous United States within the market timeframe regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial announcement.
交易量
$9,194结束日期
May 31, 2026市场开放时间
Dec 4, 2025, 3:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus strongly favors no hurricane landfall in the continental US by May 31, with 94.3% market-implied odds on "No," driven by the National Hurricane Center's (NHC) latest advisories showing tranquil Atlantic conditions—no tropical depressions or storms forming amid high vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures still warming toward seasonal peaks. The official hurricane season begins June 1, and comprehensive records since 1851 reveal zero instances of a Saffir-Simpson Category 1+ hurricane striking the US mainland in May, underscoring climatological rarity. NOAA's seasonal outlook anticipates above-normal activity later but none imminent. While rare scenarios like explosive development from a subtropical disturbance could challenge this, NHC model guidance shows low probabilities; watch daily tropical weather outlooks for shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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