Trader sentiment on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum hinges on the razor-thin margin between sub-4 million km² and 4.4-4.6 million km² extents, fueled by accelerating melt rates in late August 2024. NSIDC data shows current extent at 4.58 million km² as of August 27, down sharply from early-month peaks due to persistent high-pressure ridges over the Beaufort Sea and record ocean heat fluxes eroding thin ice edges. July's Sea Ice Outlook median forecast of 4.6 million km² now faces downside risk from CMIP6 model ensembles implying 10-20% chances below 4 million km², versus historical baselines like 2023's 4.23 million km². Divergent wind patterns and cloud feedbacks could tip outcomes, with daily NSIDC updates critical ahead of the typical September 10-20 nadir.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于今年夏天北极海冰范围最小?
今年夏天北极海冰范围最小?
少于400万平方公里 35%
440万-460万平方公里 22.0%
400-420万平方公里 20.8%
420万-440万平方公里 19.2%
$26,450 交易量
$26,450 交易量
少于400万平方公里
35%
400-420万平方公里
21%
420万-440万平方公里
19%
440万-460万平方公里
32%
460万-480万平方公里
16%
480万-500万平方公里
13%
500万平方公里以上
10%
少于400万平方公里 35%
440万-460万平方公里 22.0%
400-420万平方公里 20.8%
420万-440万平方公里 19.2%
$26,450 交易量
$26,450 交易量
少于400万平方公里
35%
400-420万平方公里
21%
420万-440万平方公里
19%
440万-460万平方公里
32%
460万-480万平方公里
16%
480万-500万平方公里
13%
500万平方公里以上
10%
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on this year's Arctic sea ice minimum hinges on the razor-thin margin between sub-4 million km² and 4.4-4.6 million km² extents, fueled by accelerating melt rates in late August 2024. NSIDC data shows current extent at 4.58 million km² as of August 27, down sharply from early-month peaks due to persistent high-pressure ridges over the Beaufort Sea and record ocean heat fluxes eroding thin ice edges. July's Sea Ice Outlook median forecast of 4.6 million km² now faces downside risk from CMIP6 model ensembles implying 10-20% chances below 4 million km², versus historical baselines like 2023's 4.23 million km². Divergent wind patterns and cloud feedbacks could tip outcomes, with daily NSIDC updates critical ahead of the typical September 10-20 nadir.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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