Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 20-22°C for Madrid's highest temperature on March 25, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts converging on a mean of 21°C amid a persistent high-pressure ridge over Iberia. This anticyclonic pattern advects mild southerly airflow, elevating readings 3-5°C above the late-March climatological average of 17°C, as confirmed by AEMET observations. Differentiating factors include subtle model divergences on afternoon cloud cover—clearer skies favor 22°C-plus, while increasing stratocumulus could cap at 19-20°C—yielding low odds for extremes below 17°C or above 24°C. Recent runs show minimal spread, with AEMET's update due within 24 hours as the key near-term catalyst.