Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability for "No," driven by Ukraine President Zelenskyy's firm official stance rejecting any territorial concessions, reiterated in recent diplomatic statements prioritizing full restoration of 1991 borders including Crimea and Donbas. Russian President Putin's demands for formal recognition of annexed regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia maintain a stark negotiation impasse, with no active peace talks underway. Incremental Russian battlefield advances in eastern Ukraine have not compelled capitulation, as sustained U.S. and EU military aid—recently bolstered by a $61 billion package—bolsters Kyiv's defensive posture. Ukraine's partial withdrawal from the Kursk salient last week underscores tactical adjustments without signaling broader surrender, while potential U.S. policy shifts post-inauguration loom as distant uncertainties before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$524,887 交易量
$524,887 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$524,887 交易量
$524,887 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability for "No," driven by Ukraine President Zelenskyy's firm official stance rejecting any territorial concessions, reiterated in recent diplomatic statements prioritizing full restoration of 1991 borders including Crimea and Donbas. Russian President Putin's demands for formal recognition of annexed regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia maintain a stark negotiation impasse, with no active peace talks underway. Incremental Russian battlefield advances in eastern Ukraine have not compelled capitulation, as sustained U.S. and EU military aid—recently bolstered by a $61 billion package—bolsters Kyiv's defensive posture. Ukraine's partial withdrawal from the Kursk salient last week underscores tactical adjustments without signaling broader surrender, while potential U.S. policy shifts post-inauguration loom as distant uncertainties before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ET
交易量
$524,887结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability for "No," driven by Ukraine President Zelenskyy's firm official stance rejecting any territorial concessions, reiterated in recent diplomatic statements prioritizing full restoration of 1991 borders including Crimea and Donbas. Russian President Putin's demands for formal recognition of annexed regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia maintain a stark negotiation impasse, with no active peace talks underway. Incremental Russian battlefield advances in eastern Ukraine have not compelled capitulation, as sustained U.S. and EU military aid—recently bolstered by a $61 billion package—bolsters Kyiv's defensive posture. Ukraine's partial withdrawal from the Kursk salient last week underscores tactical adjustments without signaling broader surrender, while potential U.S. policy shifts post-inauguration loom as distant uncertainties before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
The deal must be a publicly announced mutual agreement or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Only territory ceded as part of a diplomatic process or agreement will qualify.
If a territorial adjustment is made as part of a mutual border demarcation process or technical boundary agreement that does not materially alter de facto control or reflect a broader territorial concession, it will not qualify for a 'Yes' resolution unless it is reported as a territorial concession by a consensus of credible reporting.
Any agreement which cedes de facto military control of territory held by Ukraine will qualify regardless of whether Ukraine formally maintains its claim to sovereignty. For example, the 1999 Kumanovo Military Technical Agreement, in which Yugoslavia agreed to pull military forces out of Kosovo but did not recognize Kosovo’s autonomy or independence would qualify for a 'Yes' resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by Ukraine and/or the Russian Federation, however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$524,887结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 4:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects an 78.5% implied probability for "No," driven by Ukraine President Zelenskyy's firm official stance rejecting any territorial concessions, reiterated in recent diplomatic statements prioritizing full restoration of 1991 borders including Crimea and Donbas. Russian President Putin's demands for formal recognition of annexed regions like Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia maintain a stark negotiation impasse, with no active peace talks underway. Incremental Russian battlefield advances in eastern Ukraine have not compelled capitulation, as sustained U.S. and EU military aid—recently bolstered by a $61 billion package—bolsters Kyiv's defensive posture. Ukraine's partial withdrawal from the Kursk salient last week underscores tactical adjustments without signaling broader surrender, while potential U.S. policy shifts post-inauguration loom as distant uncertainties before 2027.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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