The United States has maintained a voluntary moratorium on nuclear explosive testing since 1992, with no yield-producing detonations since that time. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to resume testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China sparked renewed debate, though subsequent administration statements clarified focus on non-critical system tests rather than full nuclear chain reactions. In late September 2026, the National Nuclear Security Administration conducted a subsurface chemical high-explosive experiment at the Nevada National Security Site to refine detection of low-yield or decoupled blasts, explicitly not involving nuclear material. Allegations of Chinese and Russian activities have sustained discussion, yet no U.S. nuclear test has occurred amid diplomatic, legal, and arms-control considerations. The market centers on whether a qualifying detonation takes place before the resolution date.