The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$666,780 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
2%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$666,780 交易量
2026年6月30日
$40,037 交易量
2%
2026年9月30日
$6,655 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,472 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$666,780结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$666,780结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The United States has observed a voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear tests since 1992, relying instead on the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program for stockpile confidence. In October 2025, President Trump directed the Pentagon to resume testing processes “on an equal basis” with Russia and China, citing their activities, which prompted immediate clarification efforts distinguishing between potential subcritical or non-explosive experiments and full underground detonations. As of March 2026, senior officials confirmed the administration continues to assess implementation options without ruling out explosive tests, while legislation has been introduced requiring congressional approval for any resumption. Russia has responded by developing its own resumption proposals, raising questions about the future of arms control frameworks. No explosive tests have occurred, and upcoming budget, legislative, or diplomatic developments could shape whether any occur within defined timeframes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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