U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$795,539 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
6%
$795,539 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,808 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$795,539结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.U.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$795,539结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETU.S. nuclear testing policy remains shaped by the voluntary moratorium in place since 1992 and ongoing stockpile stewardship programs that rely on subcritical experiments and advanced simulations rather than explosive detonations. President Trump’s October 2025 directive to pursue testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China—following administration assessments of low-yield activities by those states—has kept the possibility of resumed underground explosive tests under active review, though subsequent statements have clarified that near-term efforts focus on non-explosive system and hydronuclear tests. Preparation timelines of 24–36 months, Senate oversight, diplomatic risks to the CTBT framework, and continued emphasis on science-based certification all limit near-term prospects for a full-yield test. Traders monitor administration budget requests, NNSA milestones, and any new compliance reports for signals that could shift implied probabilities.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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