**The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect the enduring de facto moratorium in place since 1992, maintained through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at sites like the Nevada National Security Site.** Despite President Trump's late-2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged violations, and related defense authorization provisions that could lift the ban if another nation tests, no full-yield detonation has occurred and recent activity centers on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile modernization rather than explosive testing. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including U.S. evaluations of bunker-busting capabilities amid Iran-related developments, have not translated into public preparations or announcements for a U.S. test. Key near-term catalysts remain limited to diplomatic forums such as NPT reviews or any verified foreign test that could trigger policy shifts, with resolution hinging on consensus credible reporting of an intentional non-combat nuclear chain reaction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$795,441 交易量
2026-09-30
2026年9月30日
1%
2026年12月31日
6%
$795,441 交易量
2026年9月30日
$57,710 交易量
1%
2026年12月31日
$76,920 交易量
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect the enduring de facto moratorium in place since 1992, maintained through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at sites like the Nevada National Security Site.** Despite President Trump's late-2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged violations, and related defense authorization provisions that could lift the ban if another nation tests, no full-yield detonation has occurred and recent activity centers on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile modernization rather than explosive testing. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including U.S. evaluations of bunker-busting capabilities amid Iran-related developments, have not translated into public preparations or announcements for a U.S. test. Key near-term catalysts remain limited to diplomatic forums such as NPT reviews or any verified foreign test that could trigger policy shifts, with resolution hinging on consensus credible reporting of an intentional non-combat nuclear chain reaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$795,441结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.**The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect the enduring de facto moratorium in place since 1992, maintained through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at sites like the Nevada National Security Site.** Despite President Trump's late-2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged violations, and related defense authorization provisions that could lift the ban if another nation tests, no full-yield detonation has occurred and recent activity centers on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile modernization rather than explosive testing. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including U.S. evaluations of bunker-busting capabilities amid Iran-related developments, have not translated into public preparations or announcements for a U.S. test. Key near-term catalysts remain limited to diplomatic forums such as NPT reviews or any verified foreign test that could trigger policy shifts, with resolution hinging on consensus credible reporting of an intentional non-combat nuclear chain reaction.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$795,441结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET**The low trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. nuclear explosive test by late 2026 reflect the enduring de facto moratorium in place since 1992, maintained through the Science-Based Stockpile Stewardship Program at sites like the Nevada National Security Site.** Despite President Trump's late-2025 statements directing tests "on an equal basis" with Russia and China over alleged violations, and related defense authorization provisions that could lift the ban if another nation tests, no full-yield detonation has occurred and recent activity centers on subcritical experiments, hydrodynamic tests, and stockpile modernization rather than explosive testing. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, including U.S. evaluations of bunker-busting capabilities amid Iran-related developments, have not translated into public preparations or announcements for a U.S. test. Key near-term catalysts remain limited to diplomatic forums such as NPT reviews or any verified foreign test that could trigger policy shifts, with resolution hinging on consensus credible reporting of an intentional non-combat nuclear chain reaction.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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