President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or enhanced stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed its 1992 voluntary moratorium, with technical readiness timelines estimated at 24–36 months and congressional oversight constraining rapid shifts. New START’s expiration in February 2026 and U.S. assessments of low-yield adversary activities have kept the topic in discussion, but no policy change authorizing underground explosive tests has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus that a yield-producing U.S. nuclear test remains unlikely through the end of 2026 absent major new escalatory developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$666,780 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
3%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
9%
$666,780 交易量
2026年6月30日
$40,037 交易量
3%
2026年9月30日
$6,052 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,472 交易量
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or enhanced stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed its 1992 voluntary moratorium, with technical readiness timelines estimated at 24–36 months and congressional oversight constraining rapid shifts. New START’s expiration in February 2026 and U.S. assessments of low-yield adversary activities have kept the topic in discussion, but no policy change authorizing underground explosive tests has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus that a yield-producing U.S. nuclear test remains unlikely through the end of 2026 absent major new escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$666,780结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or enhanced stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed its 1992 voluntary moratorium, with technical readiness timelines estimated at 24–36 months and congressional oversight constraining rapid shifts. New START’s expiration in February 2026 and U.S. assessments of low-yield adversary activities have kept the topic in discussion, but no policy change authorizing underground explosive tests has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus that a yield-producing U.S. nuclear test remains unlikely through the end of 2026 absent major new escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$666,780结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Trump’s October 2025 directive to prepare U.S. nuclear testing “on an equal basis” with Russia and China triggered the market, yet subsequent administration clarifications emphasized subcritical experiments, hydronuclear tests, or enhanced stockpile stewardship rather than full-yield explosive detonations at the Nevada National Security Site. The United States has observed its 1992 voluntary moratorium, with technical readiness timelines estimated at 24–36 months and congressional oversight constraining rapid shifts. New START’s expiration in February 2026 and U.S. assessments of low-yield adversary activities have kept the topic in discussion, but no policy change authorizing underground explosive tests has occurred. These factors sustain trader consensus that a yield-producing U.S. nuclear test remains unlikely through the end of 2026 absent major new escalatory developments.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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