The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness timelines of 24-36 months for any presidential decision to resume. October 2025 statements by President Trump calling for tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent administration clarifications and congressional pushback—including proposed funding restrictions—have kept probabilities for a test by late 2026 below 10%. Key constraints include the absence of technical stockpile needs under the annual lab assessment process, opposition from key senators and Nevada officials, risks of reciprocal testing by adversaries, and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to arms control and the NPT review cycle. Subcritical or non-explosive experiments remain possible without triggering market resolution, while full-yield underground tests face layered procedural, budgetary, and international hurdles through the remainder of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$670,195 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
2026年9月30日
5%
2026年12月31日
10%
$670,195 交易量
2026年6月30日
$42,083 交易量
1%
2026年9月30日
$7,151 交易量
5%
2026年12月31日
$10,742 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness timelines of 24-36 months for any presidential decision to resume. October 2025 statements by President Trump calling for tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent administration clarifications and congressional pushback—including proposed funding restrictions—have kept probabilities for a test by late 2026 below 10%. Key constraints include the absence of technical stockpile needs under the annual lab assessment process, opposition from key senators and Nevada officials, risks of reciprocal testing by adversaries, and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to arms control and the NPT review cycle. Subcritical or non-explosive experiments remain possible without triggering market resolution, while full-yield underground tests face layered procedural, budgetary, and international hurdles through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$670,195结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness timelines of 24-36 months for any presidential decision to resume. October 2025 statements by President Trump calling for tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent administration clarifications and congressional pushback—including proposed funding restrictions—have kept probabilities for a test by late 2026 below 10%. Key constraints include the absence of technical stockpile needs under the annual lab assessment process, opposition from key senators and Nevada officials, risks of reciprocal testing by adversaries, and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to arms control and the NPT review cycle. Subcritical or non-explosive experiments remain possible without triggering market resolution, while full-yield underground tests face layered procedural, budgetary, and international hurdles through the remainder of the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$670,195结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. voluntary moratorium on explosive nuclear testing has held since 1992, with the Nevada National Security Site maintaining readiness timelines of 24-36 months for any presidential decision to resume. October 2025 statements by President Trump calling for tests “on an equal basis” with Russia and China briefly elevated trader attention, yet subsequent administration clarifications and congressional pushback—including proposed funding restrictions—have kept probabilities for a test by late 2026 below 10%. Key constraints include the absence of technical stockpile needs under the annual lab assessment process, opposition from key senators and Nevada officials, risks of reciprocal testing by adversaries, and ongoing diplomatic efforts tied to arms control and the NPT review cycle. Subcritical or non-explosive experiments remain possible without triggering market resolution, while full-yield underground tests face layered procedural, budgetary, and international hurdles through the remainder of the year.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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