Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$658,492 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
3%
2026年9月30日
6%
2026年12月31日
10%
$658,492 交易量
2026年6月30日
$33,298 交易量
3%
2026年9月30日
$5,584 交易量
6%
2026年12月31日
$9,392 交易量
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
交易量
$658,492结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$658,492结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a U.S. nuclear test—defined as an intentional non-combat detonation producing a nuclear chain reaction—at just 3% by June 30, 2026, rising modestly to 10% by year-end, underscoring significant barriers despite Trump administration signals. The voluntary testing moratorium holds firm since 1992, sustained by the Stockpile Stewardship Program certifying arsenal reliability without explosive tests, as reaffirmed in recent national lab assessments. Last week's Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization head warned against U.S. or Russian resumption amid global nonproliferation strains, while Nevada Senator Jacky Rosen visited the Nevada National Security Site in April to oppose renewal. Alleged low-yield tests by China and Russia fuel deliberations, but Senate holds, preparation timelines exceeding months, and diplomatic backlash maintain low probabilities barring escalation like Iran tensions or budget breakthroughs.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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