Russia's protracted invasion of Ukraine, marking its fourth anniversary in February 2026 with no decisive gains, continues to drain military manpower and resources amid Western sanctions and high casualties, leaving limited capacity for new fronts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 19 that Moscow plans to recruit 409,000 additional troops in 2026 for offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potentially Odesa—all within Ukraine—underscoring focus on the existing conflict. NATO allies, including Baltic states, have enhanced defenses against hypothetical threats, while Russia denies plans to attack alliance territory. This trader consensus at 86.5% "No" probability highlights resource constraints and deterrence, though a swift Ukrainian collapse or geopolitical realignment could shift odds before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$51,743 交易量
$51,743 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$51,743 交易量
$51,743 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's protracted invasion of Ukraine, marking its fourth anniversary in February 2026 with no decisive gains, continues to drain military manpower and resources amid Western sanctions and high casualties, leaving limited capacity for new fronts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 19 that Moscow plans to recruit 409,000 additional troops in 2026 for offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potentially Odesa—all within Ukraine—underscoring focus on the existing conflict. NATO allies, including Baltic states, have enhanced defenses against hypothetical threats, while Russia denies plans to attack alliance territory. This trader consensus at 86.5% "No" probability highlights resource constraints and deterrence, though a swift Ukrainian collapse or geopolitical realignment could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ET
交易量
$51,743结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Russia's protracted invasion of Ukraine, marking its fourth anniversary in February 2026 with no decisive gains, continues to drain military manpower and resources amid Western sanctions and high casualties, leaving limited capacity for new fronts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 19 that Moscow plans to recruit 409,000 additional troops in 2026 for offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potentially Odesa—all within Ukraine—underscoring focus on the existing conflict. NATO allies, including Baltic states, have enhanced defenses against hypothetical threats, while Russia denies plans to attack alliance territory. This trader consensus at 86.5% "No" probability highlights resource constraints and deterrence, though a swift Ukrainian collapse or geopolitical realignment could shift odds before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$51,743结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 19, 2026, 3:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Russia's protracted invasion of Ukraine, marking its fourth anniversary in February 2026 with no decisive gains, continues to drain military manpower and resources amid Western sanctions and high casualties, leaving limited capacity for new fronts. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on March 19 that Moscow plans to recruit 409,000 additional troops in 2026 for offensives targeting Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and potentially Odesa—all within Ukraine—underscoring focus on the existing conflict. NATO allies, including Baltic states, have enhanced defenses against hypothetical threats, while Russia denies plans to attack alliance territory. This trader consensus at 86.5% "No" probability highlights resource constraints and deterrence, though a swift Ukrainian collapse or geopolitical realignment could shift odds before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题