Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to a Russian nuclear test explosion in the near term, shaped by the lack of any detonation following President Putin's November 2025 order to draft resumption proposals in response to U.S. President Trump's signals on potential American testing. Recent Russian demonstrations involved nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile flights and other nuclear-capable delivery systems in October 2025, but no explosive yields. New START's February 2026 expiration has fueled arms race rhetoric, yet Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms—despite Russia's 2023 ratification withdrawal—impose significant diplomatic barriers. No verified developments in the past 30 days; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. test announcements could shift dynamics ahead of year-end deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$1,336,210 交易量
2026-06-30
2026年6月30日
1%
September 30, 2026
9%
2026年12月31日
13%
$1,336,210 交易量
2026年6月30日
$2,840 交易量
1%
September 30, 2026
$1,279 交易量
9%
2026年12月31日
$7,518 交易量
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to a Russian nuclear test explosion in the near term, shaped by the lack of any detonation following President Putin's November 2025 order to draft resumption proposals in response to U.S. President Trump's signals on potential American testing. Recent Russian demonstrations involved nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile flights and other nuclear-capable delivery systems in October 2025, but no explosive yields. New START's February 2026 expiration has fueled arms race rhetoric, yet Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms—despite Russia's 2023 ratification withdrawal—impose significant diplomatic barriers. No verified developments in the past 30 days; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. test announcements could shift dynamics ahead of year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ET
交易量
$1,336,210结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to a Russian nuclear test explosion in the near term, shaped by the lack of any detonation following President Putin's November 2025 order to draft resumption proposals in response to U.S. President Trump's signals on potential American testing. Recent Russian demonstrations involved nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile flights and other nuclear-capable delivery systems in October 2025, but no explosive yields. New START's February 2026 expiration has fueled arms race rhetoric, yet Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms—despite Russia's 2023 ratification withdrawal—impose significant diplomatic barriers. No verified developments in the past 30 days; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. test announcements could shift dynamics ahead of year-end deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by Russia that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by Russia may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to Russia. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to Russia.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$1,336,210结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 31, 2026, 3:33 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns low implied probabilities to a Russian nuclear test explosion in the near term, shaped by the lack of any detonation following President Putin's November 2025 order to draft resumption proposals in response to U.S. President Trump's signals on potential American testing. Recent Russian demonstrations involved nuclear-powered Burevestnik cruise missile flights and other nuclear-capable delivery systems in October 2025, but no explosive yields. New START's February 2026 expiration has fueled arms race rhetoric, yet Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty norms—despite Russia's 2023 ratification withdrawal—impose significant diplomatic barriers. No verified developments in the past 30 days; escalation in Ukraine or U.S. test announcements could shift dynamics ahead of year-end deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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