Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.6% implied probability for Ukraine joining NATO before 2027, driven primarily by the ongoing Russian invasion, which NATO leaders deem incompatible with membership amid Article 5 security guarantees. The July 2024 Washington summit reaffirmed Ukraine's "irreversible path" via a new command and aid pledges but offered no invitation or Membership Action Plan, reflecting consensus hurdles from allies like the US and Germany wary of escalation. Ratification by all 32 members would take years beyond 2026. Realistic shifts include a swift ceasefire—unlikely per current fronts—or a post-US election policy pivot, though traders price these as low-probability amid geopolitical stalemate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$1,112,296 交易量
$1,112,296 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$1,112,296 交易量
$1,112,296 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 2:22 PM ET
交易量
$1,112,296结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.If Ukraine has officially joined NATO as a full member state at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
The primary settlement source for this market will be the official NATO website (https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/nato_countries.htm), however other credible sources may be used.
交易量
$1,112,296结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 96.6% implied probability for Ukraine joining NATO before 2027, driven primarily by the ongoing Russian invasion, which NATO leaders deem incompatible with membership amid Article 5 security guarantees. The July 2024 Washington summit reaffirmed Ukraine's "irreversible path" via a new command and aid pledges but offered no invitation or Membership Action Plan, reflecting consensus hurdles from allies like the US and Germany wary of escalation. Ratification by all 32 members would take years beyond 2026. Realistic shifts include a swift ceasefire—unlikely per current fronts—or a post-US election policy pivot, though traders price these as low-probability amid geopolitical stalemate.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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