Trader consensus reflects near-certain expectations of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks stalled over Moscow's insistence on retaining occupied territories like Donbas, which Kyiv rejects outright. Recent developments, including a March 22 Ukraine-US summit in Florida yielding only a POW exchange and no Russian concessions, plus a "situational pause" in direct negotiations amid Middle East escalations involving Iran, underscore the impasse. Ongoing Russian offensives around Sumy and Donetsk, with no de-escalation signals, reinforce this positioning amid the three-day deadline. Realistic shifts would require an abrupt territorial compromise or high-level breakthrough, though historical patterns and current military momentum make such outcomes highly improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$28,735,170 交易量
$28,735,170 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$28,735,170 交易量
$28,735,170 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certain expectations of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks stalled over Moscow's insistence on retaining occupied territories like Donbas, which Kyiv rejects outright. Recent developments, including a March 22 Ukraine-US summit in Florida yielding only a POW exchange and no Russian concessions, plus a "situational pause" in direct negotiations amid Middle East escalations involving Iran, underscore the impasse. Ongoing Russian offensives around Sumy and Donetsk, with no de-escalation signals, reinforce this positioning amid the three-day deadline. Realistic shifts would require an abrupt territorial compromise or high-level breakthrough, though historical patterns and current military momentum make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ET
交易量
$28,735,170结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus reflects near-certain expectations of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks stalled over Moscow's insistence on retaining occupied territories like Donbas, which Kyiv rejects outright. Recent developments, including a March 22 Ukraine-US summit in Florida yielding only a POW exchange and no Russian concessions, plus a "situational pause" in direct negotiations amid Middle East escalations involving Iran, underscore the impasse. Ongoing Russian offensives around Sumy and Donetsk, with no de-escalation signals, reinforce this positioning amid the three-day deadline. Realistic shifts would require an abrupt territorial compromise or high-level breakthrough, though historical patterns and current military momentum make such outcomes highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires which constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires which only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$28,735,170结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 10, 2025, 12:43 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trader consensus reflects near-certain expectations of no Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, driven by stalled US-mediated peace talks stalled over Moscow's insistence on retaining occupied territories like Donbas, which Kyiv rejects outright. Recent developments, including a March 22 Ukraine-US summit in Florida yielding only a POW exchange and no Russian concessions, plus a "situational pause" in direct negotiations amid Middle East escalations involving Iran, underscore the impasse. Ongoing Russian offensives around Sumy and Donetsk, with no de-escalation signals, reinforce this positioning amid the three-day deadline. Realistic shifts would require an abrupt territorial compromise or high-level breakthrough, though historical patterns and current military momentum make such outcomes highly improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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