Ongoing Russian military advances in Donetsk, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, coupled with Ukraine's stalled Kursk incursion and recent drone strikes on Russian naval assets, underscore persistent escalation absent diplomatic breakthroughs. President Zelenskyy's insistence on full Russian withdrawal and NATO membership path clashes with Moscow's demands for territorial recognition, demilitarization, and sanctions relief, maintaining a fundamental negotiation impasse. Traders price a "No" ceasefire by end-2026 at 67.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on protracted conflict amid uncertain U.S. policy shifts under incoming President Trump, historical frozen conflicts like Donbas, and no-confidence in near-term de-escalation signals. Potential catalysts include January 2025 inauguration impacts or winter stalemates, though entrenched positions favor continuation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$12,262,143 交易量
$12,262,143 交易量
是
$12,262,143 交易量
$12,262,143 交易量
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Ongoing Russian military advances in Donetsk, including intensified assaults near Pokrovsk and Kurakhove, coupled with Ukraine's stalled Kursk incursion and recent drone strikes on Russian naval assets, underscore persistent escalation absent diplomatic breakthroughs. President Zelenskyy's insistence on full Russian withdrawal and NATO membership path clashes with Moscow's demands for territorial recognition, demilitarization, and sanctions relief, maintaining a fundamental negotiation impasse. Traders price a "No" ceasefire by end-2026 at 67.5%, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on protracted conflict amid uncertain U.S. policy shifts under incoming President Trump, historical frozen conflicts like Donbas, and no-confidence in near-term de-escalation signals. Potential catalysts include January 2025 inauguration impacts or winter stalemates, though entrenched positions favor continuation.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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