Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks amid Russia's spring offensive launched last week and intensified airstrikes killing civilians as recently as yesterday. Diplomatic efforts, including recent Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Florida and a "situational pause" after February's Geneva round, have yielded no breakthroughs, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—rejected by Kyiv—and both sides trading strikes without de-escalation signals. External factors like the Iran conflict diverting aid and attention, plus Zelenskyy's insistence on no land cessions, reinforce the stalemate; a new talks round hinges on battlefield shifts or diplomatic pressure, but historical negotiation patterns suggest prolonged fighting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$12,306,497 交易量
$12,306,497 交易量
是
$12,306,497 交易量
$12,306,497 交易量
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 71% implied probability against a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by year-end, driven by stalled U.S.-brokered peace talks amid Russia's spring offensive launched last week and intensified airstrikes killing civilians as recently as yesterday. Diplomatic efforts, including recent Ukraine-U.S. meetings in Florida and a "situational pause" after February's Geneva round, have yielded no breakthroughs, with Moscow demanding Ukrainian territorial concessions in Donbas—rejected by Kyiv—and both sides trading strikes without de-escalation signals. External factors like the Iran conflict diverting aid and attention, plus Zelenskyy's insistence on no land cessions, reinforce the stalemate; a new talks round hinges on battlefield shifts or diplomatic pressure, but historical negotiation patterns suggest prolonged fighting.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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