Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched diplomatic stalemates and persistent frontline hostilities as the dominant drivers. Recent US-brokered talks in Florida concluded March 22 without breakthroughs, while reports of US security guarantees tied to Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—denied by officials like Marco Rubio—underscore irreconcilable positions on territory and guarantees. Russia presses offensives, capturing villages per March 26 claims, amid paused negotiations due to Middle East escalations diverting aid and focus. Zelenskyy insists on no territorial surrender, ruling out elections pre-ceasefire. Absent sudden diplomatic surges, major military reversals, or intensified multilateral pressure, traders see continuation through spring as baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于俄罗斯x乌克兰在2026年4月30日前停火？
俄罗斯x乌克兰在2026年4月30日前停火？
是
$1,028,344 交易量
$1,028,344 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
是
$1,028,344 交易量
$1,028,344 交易量
Apr 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched diplomatic stalemates and persistent frontline hostilities as the dominant drivers. Recent US-brokered talks in Florida concluded March 22 without breakthroughs, while reports of US security guarantees tied to Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—denied by officials like Marco Rubio—underscore irreconcilable positions on territory and guarantees. Russia presses offensives, capturing villages per March 26 claims, amid paused negotiations due to Middle East escalations diverting aid and focus. Zelenskyy insists on no territorial surrender, ruling out elections pre-ceasefire. Absent sudden diplomatic surges, major military reversals, or intensified multilateral pressure, traders see continuation through spring as baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
市场开放时间： Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$1,028,344结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched diplomatic stalemates and persistent frontline hostilities as the dominant drivers. Recent US-brokered talks in Florida concluded March 22 without breakthroughs, while reports of US security guarantees tied to Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—denied by officials like Marco Rubio—underscore irreconcilable positions on territory and guarantees. Russia presses offensives, capturing villages per March 26 claims, amid paused negotiations due to Middle East escalations diverting aid and focus. Zelenskyy insists on no territorial surrender, ruling out elections pre-ceasefire. Absent sudden diplomatic surges, major military reversals, or intensified multilateral pressure, traders see continuation through spring as baseline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A peace deal or political framework will qualify if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, effective on a specific date. Frameworks or agreements that outline terms for a future peace but do not include an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not count.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
交易量
$1,028,344结束日期
Apr 30, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 26, 2026, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by April 30 at just 3.3%, reflecting entrenched diplomatic stalemates and persistent frontline hostilities as the dominant drivers. Recent US-brokered talks in Florida concluded March 22 without breakthroughs, while reports of US security guarantees tied to Ukrainian concessions in Donbas—denied by officials like Marco Rubio—underscore irreconcilable positions on territory and guarantees. Russia presses offensives, capturing villages per March 26 claims, amid paused negotiations due to Middle East escalations diverting aid and focus. Zelenskyy insists on no territorial surrender, ruling out elections pre-ceasefire. Absent sudden diplomatic surges, major military reversals, or intensified multilateral pressure, traders see continuation through spring as baseline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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