Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Direct talks have not resumed since early 2026 U.S.-mediated sessions, with Washington reducing its role amid Middle East priorities. Recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including a major barrage on June 14-15, underscore continued escalation. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 letter proposing leader-level talks received no affirmative response from Moscow, while European efforts highlighted in the June 7 London meeting face Russian rejection of proposed conditions. Fundamental gaps on territory, security guarantees, and ceasefires persist with only days remaining, limiting realistic pathways to signature. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter timing, though current trajectories show no such momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$794,282 交易量
$794,282 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$794,282 交易量
$794,282 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Direct talks have not resumed since early 2026 U.S.-mediated sessions, with Washington reducing its role amid Middle East priorities. Recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including a major barrage on June 14-15, underscore continued escalation. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 letter proposing leader-level talks received no affirmative response from Moscow, while European efforts highlighted in the June 7 London meeting face Russian rejection of proposed conditions. Fundamental gaps on territory, security guarantees, and ceasefires persist with only days remaining, limiting realistic pathways to signature. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter timing, though current trajectories show no such momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ET
交易量
$794,282结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Direct talks have not resumed since early 2026 U.S.-mediated sessions, with Washington reducing its role amid Middle East priorities. Recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including a major barrage on June 14-15, underscore continued escalation. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 letter proposing leader-level talks received no affirmative response from Moscow, while European efforts highlighted in the June 7 London meeting face Russian rejection of proposed conditions. Fundamental gaps on territory, security guarantees, and ceasefires persist with only days remaining, limiting realistic pathways to signature. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter timing, though current trajectories show no such momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$794,282结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Dec 17, 2025, 5:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...已提议结果: 否
无争议
最终结果: 否
Ongoing hostilities and stalled diplomacy explain trader consensus against a Ukraine-Russia peace deal by June 30. Direct talks have not resumed since early 2026 U.S.-mediated sessions, with Washington reducing its role amid Middle East priorities. Recent Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including a major barrage on June 14-15, underscore continued escalation. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy’s June 4 letter proposing leader-level talks received no affirmative response from Moscow, while European efforts highlighted in the June 7 London meeting face Russian rejection of proposed conditions. Fundamental gaps on territory, security guarantees, and ceasefires persist with only days remaining, limiting realistic pathways to signature. Late diplomatic shifts or unexpected concessions could theoretically alter timing, though current trajectories show no such momentum.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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