Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid irreconcilable demands over territory and security guarantees. Recent developments include Russia's spring offensive launched around March 24, which has intensified frontline strikes and paused talks, as reported after U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs. Moscow insists on Kyiv ceding remaining Donetsk holdings, while Ukraine rejects concessions without binding NATO-aligned protections, echoing public polls showing 75% opposition to surrender-like terms. The Kremlin expressed hope for resumed U.S. talks on March 26, but ongoing escalations and distractions like the Iran conflict underscore deep divides, with historical Minsk failures reinforcing skepticism for a pre-2027 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$182,644 交易量
$182,644 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$182,644 交易量
$182,644 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid irreconcilable demands over territory and security guarantees. Recent developments include Russia's spring offensive launched around March 24, which has intensified frontline strikes and paused talks, as reported after U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs. Moscow insists on Kyiv ceding remaining Donetsk holdings, while Ukraine rejects concessions without binding NATO-aligned protections, echoing public polls showing 75% opposition to surrender-like terms. The Kremlin expressed hope for resumed U.S. talks on March 26, but ongoing escalations and distractions like the Iran conflict underscore deep divides, with historical Minsk failures reinforcing skepticism for a pre-2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$182,644结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid irreconcilable demands over territory and security guarantees. Recent developments include Russia's spring offensive launched around March 24, which has intensified frontline strikes and paused talks, as reported after U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs. Moscow insists on Kyiv ceding remaining Donetsk holdings, while Ukraine rejects concessions without binding NATO-aligned protections, echoing public polls showing 75% opposition to surrender-like terms. The Kremlin expressed hope for resumed U.S. talks on March 26, but ongoing escalations and distractions like the Iran conflict underscore deep divides, with historical Minsk failures reinforcing skepticism for a pre-2027 resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$182,644结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 74.5% implied probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia before 2027, driven by stalled U.S.-mediated negotiations amid irreconcilable demands over territory and security guarantees. Recent developments include Russia's spring offensive launched around March 24, which has intensified frontline strikes and paused talks, as reported after U.S.-Ukraine meetings in Florida on March 22 concluded without breakthroughs. Moscow insists on Kyiv ceding remaining Donetsk holdings, while Ukraine rejects concessions without binding NATO-aligned protections, echoing public polls showing 75% opposition to surrender-like terms. The Kremlin expressed hope for resumed U.S. talks on March 26, but ongoing escalations and distractions like the Iran conflict underscore deep divides, with historical Minsk failures reinforcing skepticism for a pre-2027 resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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