Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.7% against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by the absence of direct negotiations and irreconcilable red lines: Ukraine insists on full Russian troop withdrawal to 1991 borders and reparations, while Russia demands recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas. Recent escalations, including Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions alongside Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in late February, underscore the active conflict with no ceasefire signals. Even with incoming U.S. President Trump's pledges for swift resolution post-inauguration, no bilateral talks are scheduled, and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy in this invasion persist. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$375,235 交易量
$375,235 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$375,235 交易量
$375,235 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.7% against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by the absence of direct negotiations and irreconcilable red lines: Ukraine insists on full Russian troop withdrawal to 1991 borders and reparations, while Russia demands recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas. Recent escalations, including Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions alongside Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in late February, underscore the active conflict with no ceasefire signals. Even with incoming U.S. President Trump's pledges for swift resolution post-inauguration, no bilateral talks are scheduled, and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy in this invasion persist. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$375,235结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.7% against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by the absence of direct negotiations and irreconcilable red lines: Ukraine insists on full Russian troop withdrawal to 1991 borders and reparations, while Russia demands recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas. Recent escalations, including Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions alongside Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in late February, underscore the active conflict with no ceasefire signals. Even with incoming U.S. President Trump's pledges for swift resolution post-inauguration, no bilateral talks are scheduled, and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy in this invasion persist. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$375,235结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certainty at 99.7% against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by the absence of direct negotiations and irreconcilable red lines: Ukraine insists on full Russian troop withdrawal to 1991 borders and reparations, while Russia demands recognition of annexed territories like Crimea and Donbas. Recent escalations, including Russian advances in Donetsk and Kharkiv regions alongside Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian energy infrastructure in late February, underscore the active conflict with no ceasefire signals. Even with incoming U.S. President Trump's pledges for swift resolution post-inauguration, no bilateral talks are scheduled, and historical patterns of stalled diplomacy in this invasion persist. Only a sudden diplomatic summit or major concession could shift odds before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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