Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled diplomatic negotiations amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive and recent massive drone and missile barrages against Ukraine on March 23-24. US-Ukraine talks concluded earlier this week without resolution, with Washington linking security guarantees to Kyiv ceding Donbas—a condition Zelenskiy publicly highlighted as untenable, prompting Russian approval but no progress. Zelenskiy's Gulf tour secured air defense deals with UAE and Qatar on March 28, signaling continued escalation preparation rather than de-escalation. Absent a sudden, unannounced diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire signals before tomorrow's deadline, military momentum and territorial disputes render a deal highly improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$385,091 交易量
$385,091 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$385,091 交易量
$385,091 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled diplomatic negotiations amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive and recent massive drone and missile barrages against Ukraine on March 23-24. US-Ukraine talks concluded earlier this week without resolution, with Washington linking security guarantees to Kyiv ceding Donbas—a condition Zelenskiy publicly highlighted as untenable, prompting Russian approval but no progress. Zelenskiy's Gulf tour secured air defense deals with UAE and Qatar on March 28, signaling continued escalation preparation rather than de-escalation. Absent a sudden, unannounced diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire signals before tomorrow's deadline, military momentum and territorial disputes render a deal highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
交易量
$385,091结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled diplomatic negotiations amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive and recent massive drone and missile barrages against Ukraine on March 23-24. US-Ukraine talks concluded earlier this week without resolution, with Washington linking security guarantees to Kyiv ceding Donbas—a condition Zelenskiy publicly highlighted as untenable, prompting Russian approval but no progress. Zelenskiy's Gulf tour secured air defense deals with UAE and Qatar on March 28, signaling continued escalation preparation rather than de-escalation. Absent a sudden, unannounced diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire signals before tomorrow's deadline, military momentum and territorial disputes render a deal highly improbable.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$385,091结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors "No" at 99.9% implied probability for Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by March 31, driven by stalled diplomatic negotiations amid Russia's ongoing spring offensive and recent massive drone and missile barrages against Ukraine on March 23-24. US-Ukraine talks concluded earlier this week without resolution, with Washington linking security guarantees to Kyiv ceding Donbas—a condition Zelenskiy publicly highlighted as untenable, prompting Russian approval but no progress. Zelenskiy's Gulf tour secured air defense deals with UAE and Qatar on March 28, signaling continued escalation preparation rather than de-escalation. Absent a sudden, unannounced diplomatic breakthrough or ceasefire signals before tomorrow's deadline, military momentum and territorial disputes render a deal highly improbable.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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