Trader consensus implies a 24% probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike impacting Mexican soil by December 31, reflecting Trump administration escalation against cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, including January airspace warnings and maritime intercepts of drug boats. However, near-term odds for March 31 plunged below 1% as Mexico ramped up operations—such as the February raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho with US intelligence aid—and hosted joint efforts at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference in Miami, where Secretary Hegseth urged regional military cooperation. No ground-impacting strikes have occurred, prioritizing diplomacy and intel-sharing amid fentanyl border security pressures, though stalled progress could prompt unilateral executive action before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$3,246,865 交易量
2026-12-31
3月31日
<1%
12月31日
21%
$3,246,865 交易量
3月31日
$1,451,864 交易量
<1%
12月31日
$535,905 交易量
21%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus implies a 24% probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike impacting Mexican soil by December 31, reflecting Trump administration escalation against cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, including January airspace warnings and maritime intercepts of drug boats. However, near-term odds for March 31 plunged below 1% as Mexico ramped up operations—such as the February raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho with US intelligence aid—and hosted joint efforts at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference in Miami, where Secretary Hegseth urged regional military cooperation. No ground-impacting strikes have occurred, prioritizing diplomacy and intel-sharing amid fentanyl border security pressures, though stalled progress could prompt unilateral executive action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ET
交易量
$3,246,865结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Trader consensus implies a 24% probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike impacting Mexican soil by December 31, reflecting Trump administration escalation against cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, including January airspace warnings and maritime intercepts of drug boats. However, near-term odds for March 31 plunged below 1% as Mexico ramped up operations—such as the February raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho with US intelligence aid—and hosted joint efforts at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference in Miami, where Secretary Hegseth urged regional military cooperation. No ground-impacting strikes have occurred, prioritizing diplomacy and intel-sharing amid fentanyl border security pressures, though stalled progress could prompt unilateral executive action before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Mexico is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$3,246,865结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 2:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus implies a 24% probability of a qualifying US drone, missile, or airstrike impacting Mexican soil by December 31, reflecting Trump administration escalation against cartels designated as foreign terrorist organizations, including January airspace warnings and maritime intercepts of drug boats. However, near-term odds for March 31 plunged below 1% as Mexico ramped up operations—such as the February raid killing CJNG leader El Mencho with US intelligence aid—and hosted joint efforts at the March Americas Counter Cartel Conference in Miami, where Secretary Hegseth urged regional military cooperation. No ground-impacting strikes have occurred, prioritizing diplomacy and intel-sharing amid fentanyl border security pressures, though stalled progress could prompt unilateral executive action before year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
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