Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.4% implied probability for US military action in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes and operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, and Venezuela year-to-date, with late February's joint US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites—ongoing into March—solidifying the tally alongside fresh Yemen Houthi-targeted airstrikes last week amid Red Sea shipping attacks. Leading outcomes diverge on expectations for 0-3 more: 9 and 10 anticipate escalations like potential Mexican cartel strikes over border security or expanded counterterrorism in Africa; 8 and 6 reflect restraint scenarios via Tulsi Gabbard's influence as DNI or Iran de-escalation. Consolidation behind 7 could follow diplomatic breakthroughs or congressional holds on new authorizations, while hawkish Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signals risk of higher tallies if threats materialize.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于7 29.4%
9 16.5%
8 13.6%
10 10.6%
$683,854 交易量
$683,854 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
6
9%
7
29%
8
14%
9
17%
10
11%
11
4%
12
2%
13
2%
14
2%
15个以上
5%
7 29.4%
9 16.5%
8 13.6%
10 10.6%
$683,854 交易量
$683,854 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
6
$412,127 交易量
9%
7
$0 交易量
29%
8
$0 交易量
14%
9
$8,465 交易量
17%
10
$10,106 交易量
11%
11
$0 交易量
4%
12
$0 交易量
2%
13
$6,837 交易量
2%
14
$37,709 交易量
2%
15个以上
$48,768 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.4% implied probability for US military action in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes and operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, and Venezuela year-to-date, with late February's joint US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites—ongoing into March—solidifying the tally alongside fresh Yemen Houthi-targeted airstrikes last week amid Red Sea shipping attacks. Leading outcomes diverge on expectations for 0-3 more: 9 and 10 anticipate escalations like potential Mexican cartel strikes over border security or expanded counterterrorism in Africa; 8 and 6 reflect restraint scenarios via Tulsi Gabbard's influence as DNI or Iran de-escalation. Consolidation behind 7 could follow diplomatic breakthroughs or congressional holds on new authorizations, while hawkish Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signals risk of higher tallies if threats materialize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ET
交易量
$683,854结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.4% implied probability for US military action in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes and operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, and Venezuela year-to-date, with late February's joint US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites—ongoing into March—solidifying the tally alongside fresh Yemen Houthi-targeted airstrikes last week amid Red Sea shipping attacks. Leading outcomes diverge on expectations for 0-3 more: 9 and 10 anticipate escalations like potential Mexican cartel strikes over border security or expanded counterterrorism in Africa; 8 and 6 reflect restraint scenarios via Tulsi Gabbard's influence as DNI or Iran de-escalation. Consolidation behind 7 could follow diplomatic breakthroughs or congressional holds on new authorizations, while hawkish Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signals risk of higher tallies if threats materialize.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that the United States initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by the United States as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the US government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$683,854结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Nov 13, 2025, 11:15 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors 7 countries at 29.4% implied probability for US military action in 2026, driven by confirmed airstrikes and operations in Iraq, Syria, Yemen, Somalia, Iran, and Venezuela year-to-date, with late February's joint US-Israel strikes on Iranian nuclear and missile sites—ongoing into March—solidifying the tally alongside fresh Yemen Houthi-targeted airstrikes last week amid Red Sea shipping attacks. Leading outcomes diverge on expectations for 0-3 more: 9 and 10 anticipate escalations like potential Mexican cartel strikes over border security or expanded counterterrorism in Africa; 8 and 6 reflect restraint scenarios via Tulsi Gabbard's influence as DNI or Iran de-escalation. Consolidation behind 7 could follow diplomatic breakthroughs or congressional holds on new authorizations, while hawkish Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth signals risk of higher tallies if threats materialize.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题