Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks, including a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day nuclear negotiations, support the 67.5% implied probability for a deal before 2027. Mediators report substantial progress on sanctions relief and verification in exchange for curbs on enrichment and uranium stockpiles, though core gaps remain on permanent limits and facility dismantlement. Multiple rounds since early 2026, amid protests and regional tensions, have kept channels open under the Trump administration, with traders viewing the remaining timeline and mutual incentives as favoring eventual agreement over impasse.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$1,787,670 交易量
$1,787,670 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$1,787,670 交易量
$1,787,670 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks, including a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day nuclear negotiations, support the 67.5% implied probability for a deal before 2027. Mediators report substantial progress on sanctions relief and verification in exchange for curbs on enrichment and uranium stockpiles, though core gaps remain on permanent limits and facility dismantlement. Multiple rounds since early 2026, amid protests and regional tensions, have kept channels open under the Trump administration, with traders viewing the remaining timeline and mutual incentives as favoring eventual agreement over impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
市场开放时间： Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ET
交易量
$1,787,670结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks, including a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day nuclear negotiations, support the 67.5% implied probability for a deal before 2027. Mediators report substantial progress on sanctions relief and verification in exchange for curbs on enrichment and uranium stockpiles, though core gaps remain on permanent limits and facility dismantlement. Multiple rounds since early 2026, amid protests and regional tensions, have kept channels open under the Trump administration, with traders viewing the remaining timeline and mutual incentives as favoring eventual agreement over impasse.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
交易量
$1,787,670结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Nov 5, 2025, 11:47 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran diplomatic talks, including a May 2026 tentative memorandum extending the ceasefire, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and launching 60-day nuclear negotiations, support the 67.5% implied probability for a deal before 2027. Mediators report substantial progress on sanctions relief and verification in exchange for curbs on enrichment and uranium stockpiles, though core gaps remain on permanent limits and facility dismantlement. Multiple rounds since early 2026, amid protests and regional tensions, have kept channels open under the Trump administration, with traders viewing the remaining timeline and mutual incentives as favoring eventual agreement over impasse.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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