Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March, reflecting verified maritime data showing traffic near collapse: only seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 versus a historical 138 daily norm, and four on March 24. Iran's IRGC imposed multimillion-dollar tolls around March 20-27, formalized by parliament on March 31, while banning U.S. and Israeli vessels and selectively permitting "non-hostile" transits, causing loitering tanker clusters exceeding 1,500 ships. This de facto blockade drives the 98% pricing. Reversal scenarios include U.S. military escorts, strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, or a ceasefire breakthrough, though U.S. deadlines have been extended without action.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0-10 98.0%
10-20 1.5%
60+ <1%
20-30 <1%
$1,571,312 交易量
$1,571,312 交易量
2026-03-31
0-10
98%
10-20
1%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 98.0%
10-20 1.5%
60+ <1%
20-30 <1%
$1,571,312 交易量
$1,571,312 交易量
2026-03-31
0-10
$472,108 交易量
98%
10-20
$290,511 交易量
1%
20-30
$115,226 交易量
<1%
30-40
$293,655 交易量
<1%
40-50
$220,881 交易量
<1%
50-60
$88,766 交易量
<1%
60+
$90,164 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March, reflecting verified maritime data showing traffic near collapse: only seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 versus a historical 138 daily norm, and four on March 24. Iran's IRGC imposed multimillion-dollar tolls around March 20-27, formalized by parliament on March 31, while banning U.S. and Israeli vessels and selectively permitting "non-hostile" transits, causing loitering tanker clusters exceeding 1,500 ships. This de facto blockade drives the 98% pricing. Reversal scenarios include U.S. military escorts, strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, or a ceasefire breakthrough, though U.S. deadlines have been extended without action.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,571,312结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March, reflecting verified maritime data showing traffic near collapse: only seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 versus a historical 138 daily norm, and four on March 24. Iran's IRGC imposed multimillion-dollar tolls around March 20-27, formalized by parliament on March 31, while banning U.S. and Israeli vessels and selectively permitting "non-hostile" transits, causing loitering tanker clusters exceeding 1,500 ships. This de facto blockade drives the 98% pricing. Reversal scenarios include U.S. military escorts, strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, or a ceasefire breakthrough, though U.S. deadlines have been extended without action.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$1,571,312结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid the ongoing U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, trader consensus overwhelmingly favors 0-10 average daily ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz by end of March, reflecting verified maritime data showing traffic near collapse: only seven commercial vessels over March 25-26 versus a historical 138 daily norm, and four on March 24. Iran's IRGC imposed multimillion-dollar tolls around March 20-27, formalized by parliament on March 31, while banning U.S. and Israeli vessels and selectively permitting "non-hostile" transits, causing loitering tanker clusters exceeding 1,500 ships. This de facto blockade drives the 98% pricing. Reversal scenarios include U.S. military escorts, strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, or a ceasefire breakthrough, though U.S. deadlines have been extended without action.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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