Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities that escalated with military strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed an effective blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, restricting commercial ship transits to approved non-Western vessels and drastically reducing daily traffic from a normal 130-plus to 0-9 AIS-visible crossings. Maritime intelligence from Windward and Lloyd's List confirms this trend persisted through late March, with March 25 logging 4-9 vessels, March 26 showing five plus semi-dark movements, and March 30 noting three Chinese-flagged ships. Trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for a 0-10 average reflects these verified low counts, though final resolution awaits official tallies from sources like the Joint Maritime Information Centre; undetected shadow fleet activity could theoretically boost figures but lacks supporting evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0-10 99.3%
10-20 <1%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,587,258 交易量
$1,587,258 交易量
2026-03-31
0-10
99%
10-20
<1%
20-30
<1%
30-40
<1%
40-50
<1%
50-60
<1%
60+
<1%
0-10 99.3%
10-20 <1%
20-30 <1%
40-50 <1%
$1,587,258 交易量
$1,587,258 交易量
2026-03-31
0-10
$478,603 交易量
99%
10-20
$292,106 交易量
<1%
20-30
$120,820 交易量
<1%
30-40
$293,655 交易量
<1%
40-50
$220,888 交易量
<1%
50-60
$88,766 交易量
<1%
60+
$92,419 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities that escalated with military strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed an effective blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, restricting commercial ship transits to approved non-Western vessels and drastically reducing daily traffic from a normal 130-plus to 0-9 AIS-visible crossings. Maritime intelligence from Windward and Lloyd's List confirms this trend persisted through late March, with March 25 logging 4-9 vessels, March 26 showing five plus semi-dark movements, and March 30 noting three Chinese-flagged ships. Trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for a 0-10 average reflects these verified low counts, though final resolution awaits official tallies from sources like the Joint Maritime Information Centre; undetected shadow fleet activity could theoretically boost figures but lacks supporting evidence.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ET
交易量
$1,587,258结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities that escalated with military strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed an effective blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, restricting commercial ship transits to approved non-Western vessels and drastically reducing daily traffic from a normal 130-plus to 0-9 AIS-visible crossings. Maritime intelligence from Windward and Lloyd's List confirms this trend persisted through late March, with March 25 logging 4-9 vessels, March 26 showing five plus semi-dark movements, and March 30 noting three Chinese-flagged ships. Trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for a 0-10 average reflects these verified low counts, though final resolution awaits official tallies from sources like the Joint Maritime Information Centre; undetected shadow fleet activity could theoretically boost figures but lacks supporting evidence.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for March 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as data for March 31, 2026 has been published. If no data for March 31, 2026 has been published by April 14, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to March 31, 2026 for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for March 31, 2026. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$1,587,258结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Amid ongoing US-Iran hostilities that escalated with military strikes on February 28, 2026, Iran has imposed an effective blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, restricting commercial ship transits to approved non-Western vessels and drastically reducing daily traffic from a normal 130-plus to 0-9 AIS-visible crossings. Maritime intelligence from Windward and Lloyd's List confirms this trend persisted through late March, with March 25 logging 4-9 vessels, March 26 showing five plus semi-dark movements, and March 30 noting three Chinese-flagged ships. Trader consensus at 99.3% implied probability for a 0-10 average reflects these verified low counts, though final resolution awaits official tallies from sources like the Joint Maritime Information Centre; undetected shadow fleet activity could theoretically boost figures but lacks supporting evidence.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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