Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around severely curtailed Strait of Hormuz transits on April 3, pricing a 67.5% implied probability for 0-10 ships amid escalating geopolitical risks. Houthi militants' April 2 threats to blockade the strait in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on Yemen have spiked war risk insurance premiums by up to 300%, prompting major shipowners to delay voyages and reroute cargoes. This marks a sharp deviation from the typical 20-25 large tankers daily, per U.S. Energy Information Administration baselines, with secondary outcomes like 10-20 ships at just 10.5% reflecting trader caution. Resolution hinges on real-time AIS vessel tracking data, with any de-escalation potentially lifting odds for higher bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于0-10 68%
10-20 11%
20-30 8%
30-40 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
0-10
68%
10-20
11%
20-30
8%
30-40
6%
40-50
3%
50-60
5%
60+
6%
0-10 68%
10-20 11%
20-30 8%
30-40 6.0%
NEW
NEW
Apr 3, 2026
0-10
$180 交易量
68%
10-20
$103 交易量
11%
20-30
$87 交易量
8%
30-40
$98 交易量
6%
40-50
$72 交易量
3%
50-60
$72 交易量
5%
60+
$112 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ET
交易量
$726结束日期
Apr 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz that IMF Portwatch reports for the specified date.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the data for the specified date has been published. If no data for the specified date has been published by 11:59 PM ET on the seventh day after the end of the specified date, this market will resolve based on data for the most recent date prior to the specified date for which data is available.
This market will resolve based on the first publication of data for the specified date. Any subsequent revisions will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$726结束日期
Apr 3, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 24, 2026, 1:02 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket has coalesced around severely curtailed Strait of Hormuz transits on April 3, pricing a 67.5% implied probability for 0-10 ships amid escalating geopolitical risks. Houthi militants' April 2 threats to blockade the strait in retaliation for U.S. airstrikes on Yemen have spiked war risk insurance premiums by up to 300%, prompting major shipowners to delay voyages and reroute cargoes. This marks a sharp deviation from the typical 20-25 large tankers daily, per U.S. Energy Information Administration baselines, with secondary outcomes like 10-20 ships at just 10.5% reflecting trader caution. Resolution hinges on real-time AIS vessel tracking data, with any de-escalation potentially lifting odds for higher bins.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题