Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 81.5%, reflecting optimism from late March diplomatic overtures including a US 15-point ceasefire framework transmitted via Pakistan, Trump's signaled pause on escalation, and market rallies tied to de-escalation hopes around the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports of stalled talks—such as Iran's rejection of Islamabad meetings and Qatar declining mediation—have not eroded this sentiment, amid broader signals of Iranian concessions to avert further airstrikes. On the leadership front, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March strikes prompted son Mojtaba's appointment, but his severe injuries from recent operations have created a command vacuum without confirmed succession, underscoring regime survival pressures that favor near-term diplomatic off-ramps over internal upheaval.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Leadership Change
$34,945 交易量
$34,945 交易量
2026-12-31
Leadership Change
$34,945 交易量
$34,945 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 81.5%, reflecting optimism from late March diplomatic overtures including a US 15-point ceasefire framework transmitted via Pakistan, Trump's signaled pause on escalation, and market rallies tied to de-escalation hopes around the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports of stalled talks—such as Iran's rejection of Islamabad meetings and Qatar declining mediation—have not eroded this sentiment, amid broader signals of Iranian concessions to avert further airstrikes. On the leadership front, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March strikes prompted son Mojtaba's appointment, but his severe injuries from recent operations have created a command vacuum without confirmed succession, underscoring regime survival pressures that favor near-term diplomatic off-ramps over internal upheaval.
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
交易量
$34,945结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 81.5%, reflecting optimism from late March diplomatic overtures including a US 15-point ceasefire framework transmitted via Pakistan, Trump's signaled pause on escalation, and market rallies tied to de-escalation hopes around the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports of stalled talks—such as Iran's rejection of Islamabad meetings and Qatar declining mediation—have not eroded this sentiment, amid broader signals of Iranian concessions to avert further airstrikes. On the leadership front, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March strikes prompted son Mojtaba's appointment, but his severe injuries from recent operations have created a command vacuum without confirmed succession, underscoring regime survival pressures that favor near-term diplomatic off-ramps over internal upheaval.
This market will resolve to "Leadership Change" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran before there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Ceasefire” if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in direct military engagement, between the United States and Iran, before the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran.
If neither occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify, regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
An “official ceasefire agreement” requires clear public confirmation from both the United States government and the government of Iran that they have agreed to halt military hostilities against one another, or for an official ceasefire agreement to be otherwise confirmed to have been reached by an overwhelming consensus of media reporting.
If the agreement is officially reached before Khamenei ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran, this will qualify, regardless of when the ceasefire officially takes effect.
Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses, limited operational pauses, or temporary tactical stand-downs will not count toward the resolution of this market.
A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, or political framework will qualify only if it includes a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement between the United States and Iran, effective on a specified date, or otherwise confirmed by an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting. Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
This market’s resolution will be based on official statements from the United States government and the government of Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$34,945结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Mar 13, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a US-Iran ceasefire at 81.5%, reflecting optimism from late March diplomatic overtures including a US 15-point ceasefire framework transmitted via Pakistan, Trump's signaled pause on escalation, and market rallies tied to de-escalation hopes around the Strait of Hormuz. Recent reports of stalled talks—such as Iran's rejection of Islamabad meetings and Qatar declining mediation—have not eroded this sentiment, amid broader signals of Iranian concessions to avert further airstrikes. On the leadership front, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei's death in early March strikes prompted son Mojtaba's appointment, but his severe injuries from recent operations have created a command vacuum without confirmed succession, underscoring regime survival pressures that favor near-term diplomatic off-ramps over internal upheaval.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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