Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30, driven by persistent US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 crisis onset. Commercial transits have collapsed over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels daily to near-zero in the past 24-48 hours per MarineTraffic AIS data, with 1,550 vessels stranded and IRGC patrols intensifying amid ceasefire breakdowns. Elevated insurance premiums and nine major carriers suspending Gulf routes amplify risks, sustaining the chokepoint's role as a geopolitical flashpoint for 20% of global oil flows. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or US naval escorts, though recent escalations like French container ship strikes signal prolonged constraints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
$5,021,031 交易量
$5,021,031 交易量
2026-06-30
是
$5,021,031 交易量
$5,021,031 交易量
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30, driven by persistent US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 crisis onset. Commercial transits have collapsed over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels daily to near-zero in the past 24-48 hours per MarineTraffic AIS data, with 1,550 vessels stranded and IRGC patrols intensifying amid ceasefire breakdowns. Elevated insurance premiums and nine major carriers suspending Gulf routes amplify risks, sustaining the chokepoint's role as a geopolitical flashpoint for 20% of global oil flows. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or US naval escorts, though recent escalations like French container ship strikes signal prolonged constraints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
市场开放时间： Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$5,021,031结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30, driven by persistent US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 crisis onset. Commercial transits have collapsed over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels daily to near-zero in the past 24-48 hours per MarineTraffic AIS data, with 1,550 vessels stranded and IRGC patrols intensifying amid ceasefire breakdowns. Elevated insurance premiums and nine major carriers suspending Gulf routes amplify risks, sustaining the chokepoint's role as a geopolitical flashpoint for 20% of global oil flows. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or US naval escorts, though recent escalations like French container ship strikes signal prolonged constraints.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and June 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for June 30, 2026, however, will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
交易量
$5,021,056结束日期
2026-06-30市场开放时间
Apr 13, 2026, 6:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 69% implied probability against Strait of Hormuz traffic normalizing by June 30, driven by persistent US-Iran tensions following the February 2026 crisis onset. Commercial transits have collapsed over 95% from pre-conflict averages of 130 vessels daily to near-zero in the past 24-48 hours per MarineTraffic AIS data, with 1,550 vessels stranded and IRGC patrols intensifying amid ceasefire breakdowns. Elevated insurance premiums and nine major carriers suspending Gulf routes amplify risks, sustaining the chokepoint's role as a geopolitical flashpoint for 20% of global oil flows. Key catalysts include potential diplomatic breakthroughs or US naval escorts, though recent escalations like French container ship strikes signal prolonged constraints.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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