The UAE’s departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, following disputes over production quotas and a desire to pursue independent output policies amid the Iran-related energy crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has already reshaped the cartel’s membership and leverage. With OPEC now reduced to 11 members, subsequent reporting through early June shows no comparable announcements or confirmed signals from remaining producers regarding additional exits this year, despite ongoing quota frictions and capacity ambitions among some Gulf and African states. This sequence of events underpins trader consensus reflected in the 73% implied probability against another departure, as markets price in a period of relative stability while members evaluate the UAE precedent and broader supply dynamics without fresh triggers for further withdrawals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$105,601 交易量
$105,601 交易量
2026-12-31
$105,601 交易量
$105,601 交易量
2026-12-31
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, following disputes over production quotas and a desire to pursue independent output policies amid the Iran-related energy crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has already reshaped the cartel’s membership and leverage. With OPEC now reduced to 11 members, subsequent reporting through early June shows no comparable announcements or confirmed signals from remaining producers regarding additional exits this year, despite ongoing quota frictions and capacity ambitions among some Gulf and African states. This sequence of events underpins trader consensus reflected in the 73% implied probability against another departure, as markets price in a period of relative stability while members evaluate the UAE precedent and broader supply dynamics without fresh triggers for further withdrawals.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
交易量
$105,601结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The UAE’s departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, following disputes over production quotas and a desire to pursue independent output policies amid the Iran-related energy crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has already reshaped the cartel’s membership and leverage. With OPEC now reduced to 11 members, subsequent reporting through early June shows no comparable announcements or confirmed signals from remaining producers regarding additional exits this year, despite ongoing quota frictions and capacity ambitions among some Gulf and African states. This sequence of events underpins trader consensus reflected in the 73% implied probability against another departure, as markets price in a period of relative stability while members evaluate the UAE precedent and broader supply dynamics without fresh triggers for further withdrawals.
On April 28, 2026, the United Arab Emirates officially announced that it would withdraw from OPEC. You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/uae-says-it-quits-opec-opec-statement-2026-04-28/.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if another OPEC member officially announces its withdrawal from OPEC between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM Gulf Standard Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official announcement made by any country that is an OPEC member at the time of market creation and has not already announced its exit will suffice, regardless of when the withdrawal is set to take effect.
Informal announcements, statements from unnamed sources, or leaks will not qualify.
This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the respective governments; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$105,601结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 28, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The UAE’s departure from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026, following disputes over production quotas and a desire to pursue independent output policies amid the Iran-related energy crisis and Strait of Hormuz disruptions, has already reshaped the cartel’s membership and leverage. With OPEC now reduced to 11 members, subsequent reporting through early June shows no comparable announcements or confirmed signals from remaining producers regarding additional exits this year, despite ongoing quota frictions and capacity ambitions among some Gulf and African states. This sequence of events underpins trader consensus reflected in the 73% implied probability against another departure, as markets price in a period of relative stability while members evaluate the UAE precedent and broader supply dynamics without fresh triggers for further withdrawals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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