Since early March 2026, when Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's death in US/Israeli airstrikes, he has made no verified public appearance, with state media issuing only written messages, archival footage, and suspected AI-enhanced images on his behalf. This prolonged absence amid escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict has shaped trader consensus, pricing Yes at 24% by April 30 and 36% by May 31, reflecting doubts over his health, security, or effective control. Russia's ambassador confirmed March 31 he remains in Tehran but refrains from public view for "obvious reasons," while domestic rallies pledge loyalty without his presence. No speeches, videos, or photos announced; resolution hinges on authentic new media by deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$754,423 交易量
2026-03-31
3月31日
<1%
April 30
23%
5月31日
41%
$754,423 交易量
3月31日
$615,786 交易量
<1%
April 30
$131,604 交易量
23%
5月31日
$7,033 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Since early March 2026, when Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's death in US/Israeli airstrikes, he has made no verified public appearance, with state media issuing only written messages, archival footage, and suspected AI-enhanced images on his behalf. This prolonged absence amid escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict has shaped trader consensus, pricing Yes at 24% by April 30 and 36% by May 31, reflecting doubts over his health, security, or effective control. Russia's ambassador confirmed March 31 he remains in Tehran but refrains from public view for "obvious reasons," while domestic rallies pledge loyalty without his presence. No speeches, videos, or photos announced; resolution hinges on authentic new media by deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ET
交易量
$754,423结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.Since early March 2026, when Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's death in US/Israeli airstrikes, he has made no verified public appearance, with state media issuing only written messages, archival footage, and suspected AI-enhanced images on his behalf. This prolonged absence amid escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict has shaped trader consensus, pricing Yes at 24% by April 30 and 36% by May 31, reflecting doubts over his health, security, or effective control. Russia's ambassador confirmed March 31 he remains in Tehran but refrains from public view for "obvious reasons," while domestic rallies pledge loyalty without his presence. No speeches, videos, or photos announced; resolution hinges on authentic new media by deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, is photographed or videotaped between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," the images or video must be taken and released within this market's timeframe. The images or video must be authentic. Archival material, previously recorded footage, reused images, digitally altered content, AI-generated media, staged reproductions, or any posthumous releases will not qualify.
Digital appearances, including live broadcasts, will count for this market.
The resolution source for this market will be the image/video of Mojtaba Khamenei, and a consensus of credible reporting as to whether it is real.
交易量
$754,423结束日期
2026-04-30市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 6:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Since early March 2026, when Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader after his father Ali's death in US/Israeli airstrikes, he has made no verified public appearance, with state media issuing only written messages, archival footage, and suspected AI-enhanced images on his behalf. This prolonged absence amid escalating Iran-Israel-US conflict has shaped trader consensus, pricing Yes at 24% by April 30 and 36% by May 31, reflecting doubts over his health, security, or effective control. Russia's ambassador confirmed March 31 he remains in Tehran but refrains from public view for "obvious reasons," while domestic rallies pledge loyalty without his presence. No speeches, videos, or photos announced; resolution hinges on authentic new media by deadlines.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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