Mojtaba Khamenei has issued only written statements and messages since his March 2026 appointment as Supreme Leader following his father’s killing in a February US-Israeli strike, with no verified public appearances. Iranian officials, including Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf in late October and a diplomat in mid-October, have described private meetings confirming his health and decision-making role while citing security threats from ongoing regional conflict as the reason for avoiding media or public events. Recent written messages, such as the November 4 statement on US policy and earlier October directives to military commanders, maintain institutional continuity without visual confirmation. Trader consensus at low single-digit implied probability for a near-term appearance reflects these persistent security constraints, absence of scheduled public events, and pattern of private governance during heightened tensions.