Trader consensus prices "No" at 85% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of direct armed attacks on alliance territory despite persistent Russia-Ukraine tensions. Recent airspace violations over Poland and Romania—involving intercepted Russian drones and missiles—have not caused casualties or met the collective defense threshold, as confirmed by NATO and allied officials. Bolstered eastern flank deployments, Finland and Sweden's full integration, and sustained 2% defense spending pledges among more allies have enhanced deterrence without escalation signals from Moscow. President-elect Trump's past NATO skepticism introduces policy uncertainty, but no withdrawal moves or invasion preps alter the low-risk assessment; a major Baltic incursion or deadly hybrid attack could shift odds.