Trader consensus prices "No" at 86.5% for NATO invoking Article 5 before 2027, reflecting the absence of any armed attack on alliance territory despite persistent Russian hybrid threats and provocations. Recent warnings from Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk (April 24) and Sweden's chief of defense (April 16) highlighted potential Russian incursions into Baltic islands or airspace violations via Ukrainian drones, yet these gray-zone tactics—such as UAV incursions and sabotage—have not met the threshold of an "armed attack" requiring unanimous invocation. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's March rejection of Article 5 over an Iranian missile entering Turkish airspace underscored the high bar, with no escalatory incidents since. Ongoing NATO exercises like Sword 26 bolster deterrence, while diplomatic tensions over Ukraine persist without direct NATO involvement; late-breaking territorial strikes or cyber-physical attacks could shift odds.