NATO’s Article 5 has remained uninvoked since its sole activation after the 2001 attacks, with recent hybrid incidents such as the September 2025 Russian drone incursions over Poland and airspace violations near Estonia prompting only Article 4 consultations and enhanced measures like Operation Eastern Sentry rather than collective defense activation. Alliance leaders continue to address eastern-flank tensions through forward deployments, air policing, and diplomatic channels while maintaining the high evidentiary threshold of a clear armed attack on member territory. Warnings from military officials about potential Russian probes by 2027-2029 reflect longer-term risk assessments but have not produced verifiable escalations crossing the invocation bar in the past year. Traders’ strong consensus on no invocation before 2027 aligns with this sustained pattern of calibrated deterrence amid contained geopolitical friction.