Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than 25 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz during the week of May 4 amid the ongoing 2026 crisis, where Iranian forces have largely blocked the chokepoint since late February through attacks on vessels and threats of mining. Recent naval skirmishes between U.S. and Iranian naval forces in early May, including reported strikes on May 4, 5, and 8, further throttled traffic, with ship-tracking data from IMF Portwatch and Kpler showing daily transits averaging under 10—mostly small cargo and Iranian-linked vessels—down from pre-crisis norms of 100-150 per day. This commanding position stems from verified AIS data confirming the historic low; realistic challenges include upward revisions for unreported "dark" ships or late diplomatic breakthroughs to clear the strait, though post-event data solidifies the outcome.