Recent geopolitical tensions involving Iran, including U.S. warnings about potential resumption of military action and uncertainty over a fragile ceasefire extending 60 days, have introduced volatility in crude benchmarks like Brent and WTI. Prices have retreated sharply from earlier 2026 spikes above $100 per barrel—driven by Strait of Hormuz disruptions and infrastructure strikes—to around $77-78 amid signs of supply recovery and IEA forecasts of a widening global surplus through 2027. Oversupply pressures from rising non-OPEC output contrast with modest demand growth, while any escalation in Middle East hostilities or renewed export curbs could quickly tighten balances and support rallies. Traders weigh these short-term catalysts against structural forecasts pointing to lower averages absent major shocks.