Traders assign a near-even 50.5% probability to “Something” occurring in May 2026 because none of the market’s explicit triggers—Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, Fed rate cut, India-Pakistan invasion, Israel or U.S. military action against Iran, or election of a Black pope—have materialized despite ongoing conflicts and scheduled events. Recent developments include competing short-term ceasefires declared by Russia and Ukraine around Victory Day, an Israeli strike in Gaza, and a WHO-declared Ebola emergency in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, none of which meet resolution criteria. The Maltese general election on May 30 and any final-week central-bank or diplomatic announcements remain the primary variables that could still activate a qualifying outcome before the May 31 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于什么也没有
$128,054 交易量
$128,054 交易量
什么也没有
$128,054 交易量
$128,054 交易量
- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
市场开放时间: Apr 30, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...- US x Iran permanent peace deal
- Iran leadership change
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hits ↑ $150
- US military action against Cuba
- US confirms that aliens exist
- Russia invades a NATO country
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Nothing”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH_MAY.pdf
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a near-even 50.5% probability to “Something” occurring in May 2026 because none of the market’s explicit triggers—Russia-Ukraine ceasefire agreement, Fed rate cut, India-Pakistan invasion, Israel or U.S. military action against Iran, or election of a Black pope—have materialized despite ongoing conflicts and scheduled events. Recent developments include competing short-term ceasefires declared by Russia and Ukraine around Victory Day, an Israeli strike in Gaza, and a WHO-declared Ebola emergency in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, none of which meet resolution criteria. The Maltese general election on May 30 and any final-week central-bank or diplomatic announcements remain the primary variables that could still activate a qualifying outcome before the May 31 deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题