Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects a 92.7% implied probability for "No," driven by the low likelihood of all three required critical incidents—A AWS service disruption, Discord critical outage, and Cloudflare critical incident—occurring by March 31, 2026. With just days remaining, Cloudflare's status page shows only minor, resolved issues like datacenter network glitches and API errors over the past week, lacking any major disruption. Discord resolved a voice connectivity and streaming outage on March 25, while AWS faces ongoing but localized Middle East regional impairments from physical damage and power failures. This fragmented incident history underscores cloud providers' resilient infrastructure and rapid incident response, though a surprise cyberattack or cascading failure could still challenge the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$13,391 交易量
$13,391 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
是
$13,391 交易量
$13,391 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects a 92.7% implied probability for "No," driven by the low likelihood of all three required critical incidents—A AWS service disruption, Discord critical outage, and Cloudflare critical incident—occurring by March 31, 2026. With just days remaining, Cloudflare's status page shows only minor, resolved issues like datacenter network glitches and API errors over the past week, lacking any major disruption. Discord resolved a voice connectivity and streaming outage on March 25, while AWS faces ongoing but localized Middle East regional impairments from physical damage and power failures. This fragmented incident history underscores cloud providers' resilient infrastructure and rapid incident response, though a surprise cyberattack or cascading failure could still challenge the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
市场开放时间： Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
交易量
$13,391结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects a 92.7% implied probability for "No," driven by the low likelihood of all three required critical incidents—A AWS service disruption, Discord critical outage, and Cloudflare critical incident—occurring by March 31, 2026. With just days remaining, Cloudflare's status page shows only minor, resolved issues like datacenter network glitches and API errors over the past week, lacking any major disruption. Discord resolved a voice connectivity and streaming outage on March 25, while AWS faces ongoing but localized Middle East regional impairments from physical damage and power failures. This fragmented incident history underscores cloud providers' resilient infrastructure and rapid incident response, though a surprise cyberattack or cascading failure could still challenge the consensus.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
交易量
$13,391结束日期
Mar 31, 2026市场开放时间
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Services Down Parlay" market reflects a 92.7% implied probability for "No," driven by the low likelihood of all three required critical incidents—A AWS service disruption, Discord critical outage, and Cloudflare critical incident—occurring by March 31, 2026. With just days remaining, Cloudflare's status page shows only minor, resolved issues like datacenter network glitches and API errors over the past week, lacking any major disruption. Discord resolved a voice connectivity and streaming outage on March 25, while AWS faces ongoing but localized Middle East regional impairments from physical damage and power failures. This fragmented incident history underscores cloud providers' resilient infrastructure and rapid incident response, though a surprise cyberattack or cascading failure could still challenge the consensus.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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