Trump's January nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has solidified trader consensus at 77.5% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting his hawkish history as a former Fed governor who dissented against loose policy during the financial crisis. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%—signaling just one cut in 2026—bolsters expectations of limited easing under Warsh, despite President Trump's rate-cut pressures. Recent March 27 reports of Senate confirmation delays amid Iran war escalations and Powell disputes have trimmed Warsh's lower-rate odds to 11.5%, while faded BlackRock executive Rick Rieder's dovish profile lingers at 9.4%. Traders eye May 15 transition for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于每位美联储主席的预测美联储利率
每位美联储主席的预测美联储利率
凯文·沃什与利率高于2.5% 72%
凯文·沃什 & 利率≤2.5% 12%
其他 4.7%
瑞克·里德 & 利率≤2.5% 2.2%
$14,234 交易量
$14,234 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
凯文·沃什与利率高于2.5%
77%
凯文·沃什 & 利率≤2.5%
12%
其他
5%
瑞克·里德 & 利率≤2.5%
9%
凯文·哈塞特 & 利率≤2.5%
1%
里克·里德 & 利率高于2.5%
1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒及利率≤2.5%
<1%
凯文·哈塞特 & 利率高于2.5%
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒及利率高于2.5%
<1%
凯文·沃什与利率高于2.5% 72%
凯文·沃什 & 利率≤2.5% 12%
其他 4.7%
瑞克·里德 & 利率≤2.5% 2.2%
$14,234 交易量
$14,234 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
凯文·沃什与利率高于2.5%
$6,589 交易量
77%
凯文·沃什 & 利率≤2.5%
$0 交易量
12%
其他
$0 交易量
5%
瑞克·里德 & 利率≤2.5%
$0 交易量
9%
凯文·哈塞特 & 利率≤2.5%
$0 交易量
1%
里克·里德 & 利率高于2.5%
$0 交易量
1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒及利率≤2.5%
$0 交易量
<1%
凯文·哈塞特 & 利率高于2.5%
$0 交易量
<1%
克里斯托弗·沃勒及利率高于2.5%
$7,645 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trump's January nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has solidified trader consensus at 77.5% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting his hawkish history as a former Fed governor who dissented against loose policy during the financial crisis. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%—signaling just one cut in 2026—bolsters expectations of limited easing under Warsh, despite President Trump's rate-cut pressures. Recent March 27 reports of Senate confirmation delays amid Iran war escalations and Powell disputes have trimmed Warsh's lower-rate odds to 11.5%, while faded BlackRock executive Rick Rieder's dovish profile lingers at 9.4%. Traders eye May 15 transition for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
市场开放时间： Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
交易量
$14,234结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trump's January nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has solidified trader consensus at 77.5% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting his hawkish history as a former Fed governor who dissented against loose policy during the financial crisis. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%—signaling just one cut in 2026—bolsters expectations of limited easing under Warsh, despite President Trump's rate-cut pressures. Recent March 27 reports of Senate confirmation delays amid Iran war escalations and Powell disputes have trimmed Warsh's lower-rate odds to 11.5%, while faded BlackRock executive Rick Rieder's dovish profile lingers at 9.4%. Traders eye May 15 transition for resolution shifts.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
交易量
$14,234结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trump's January nomination of Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair, formalized to the Senate in early March, has solidified trader consensus at 77.5% for Warsh paired with a federal funds rate above 2.5%, reflecting his hawkish history as a former Fed governor who dissented against loose policy during the financial crisis. The FOMC's March 18 decision to hold rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%—signaling just one cut in 2026—bolsters expectations of limited easing under Warsh, despite President Trump's rate-cut pressures. Recent March 27 reports of Senate confirmation delays amid Iran war escalations and Powell disputes have trimmed Warsh's lower-rate odds to 11.5%, while faded BlackRock executive Rick Rieder's dovish profile lingers at 9.4%. Traders eye May 15 transition for resolution shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题