Trader consensus prices a 60% chance that at least one specified major event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime fall, Republican Senate supermajority trifecta post-midterms, China invading Taiwan, or Bitcoin crashing below $10k—occurs by December 31, 2026, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and domestic political volatility. Over the past week, CPAC exposed rifts in Trump's base over escalating Iran conflict, where recent updates note a "new regime president" seeking ceasefire amid de-escalation signals, yet traders weigh invasion odds. GOP leaders announced plans yesterday to end the DHS shutdown via continuing resolution, amid early 2026 special elections testing Trump's influence ahead of November midterms that could deliver Senate supermajority. No triggers have materialized since January launch, but uncertainty from Russia-NATO tensions and global disasters sustains the edge toward "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$442,710 交易量
$442,710 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$442,710 交易量
$442,710 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 60% chance that at least one specified major event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime fall, Republican Senate supermajority trifecta post-midterms, China invading Taiwan, or Bitcoin crashing below $10k—occurs by December 31, 2026, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and domestic political volatility. Over the past week, CPAC exposed rifts in Trump's base over escalating Iran conflict, where recent updates note a "new regime president" seeking ceasefire amid de-escalation signals, yet traders weigh invasion odds. GOP leaders announced plans yesterday to end the DHS shutdown via continuing resolution, amid early 2026 special elections testing Trump's influence ahead of November midterms that could deliver Senate supermajority. No triggers have materialized since January launch, but uncertainty from Russia-NATO tensions and global disasters sustains the edge toward "No."
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
市场开放时间： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$442,710结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus prices a 60% chance that at least one specified major event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime fall, Republican Senate supermajority trifecta post-midterms, China invading Taiwan, or Bitcoin crashing below $10k—occurs by December 31, 2026, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and domestic political volatility. Over the past week, CPAC exposed rifts in Trump's base over escalating Iran conflict, where recent updates note a "new regime president" seeking ceasefire amid de-escalation signals, yet traders weigh invasion odds. GOP leaders announced plans yesterday to end the DHS shutdown via continuing resolution, amid early 2026 special elections testing Trump's influence ahead of November midterms that could deliver Senate supermajority. No triggers have materialized since January launch, but uncertainty from Russia-NATO tensions and global disasters sustains the edge toward "No."
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
交易量
$442,710结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices a 60% chance that at least one specified major event—such as U.S. invasion of Iran, Iranian regime fall, Republican Senate supermajority trifecta post-midterms, China invading Taiwan, or Bitcoin crashing below $10k—occurs by December 31, 2026, reflecting heightened geopolitical risks and domestic political volatility. Over the past week, CPAC exposed rifts in Trump's base over escalating Iran conflict, where recent updates note a "new regime president" seeking ceasefire amid de-escalation signals, yet traders weigh invasion odds. GOP leaders announced plans yesterday to end the DHS shutdown via continuing resolution, amid early 2026 special elections testing Trump's influence ahead of November midterms that could deliver Senate supermajority. No triggers have materialized since January launch, but uncertainty from Russia-NATO tensions and global disasters sustains the edge toward "No."
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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