Traders assign a 69.5% implied probability to “Yes” on the 2026 “nothing ever happens” market amid ongoing U.S.-Iran negotiations following early-year military actions, including coordinated strikes and leadership changes in Tehran. A fragile ceasefire holds with periodic incidents such as strikes near Kuwait, while oil supply disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz continue to shape energy markets. U.S. midterm primaries are underway, with November congressional and gubernatorial contests approaching and potential war-powers resolutions in Congress. Additional scheduled events include Brazil’s October general election and Ethiopia’s June vote, yet recent diplomatic signals point toward de-escalation in active theaters and limited new legislative or executive shocks in the second half of the year. This positioning reflects trader assessment of contained rather than escalating risks through year-end.