The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign, including a January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, has triggered severe energy shortages and blackouts on the island. This follows the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and coincides with naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training focused on counter-drone operations near Guantánamo Bay. A May indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside a mid-May CIA Director visit to Havana and leaked reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has intensified rhetoric about regime change by year-end while U.S. officials have stated no imminent kinetic action is planned. These economic, diplomatic, and positioning measures form the primary drivers of trader assessments around the likelihood and timing of any U.S. military strikes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$5,775,410 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
39%
$5,775,410 交易量
12月31日
$3,596,918 交易量
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign, including a January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, has triggered severe energy shortages and blackouts on the island. This follows the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and coincides with naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training focused on counter-drone operations near Guantánamo Bay. A May indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside a mid-May CIA Director visit to Havana and leaked reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has intensified rhetoric about regime change by year-end while U.S. officials have stated no imminent kinetic action is planned. These economic, diplomatic, and positioning measures form the primary drivers of trader assessments around the likelihood and timing of any U.S. military strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$5,775,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign, including a January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, has triggered severe energy shortages and blackouts on the island. This follows the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and coincides with naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training focused on counter-drone operations near Guantánamo Bay. A May indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside a mid-May CIA Director visit to Havana and leaked reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has intensified rhetoric about regime change by year-end while U.S. officials have stated no imminent kinetic action is planned. These economic, diplomatic, and positioning measures form the primary drivers of trader assessments around the likelihood and timing of any U.S. military strikes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$5,775,410结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Trump administration's maximum-pressure campaign, including a January 2026 executive order declaring a national emergency and imposing tariffs on third-country oil shipments to Cuba, has triggered severe energy shortages and blackouts on the island. This follows the U.S. intervention in Venezuela and coincides with naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier strike group to the Caribbean in May, increased surveillance flights, and SOUTHCOM training focused on counter-drone operations near Guantánamo Bay. A May indictment of former Cuban leader Raúl Castro for the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, alongside a mid-May CIA Director visit to Havana and leaked reports of Cuban drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran, has intensified rhetoric about regime change by year-end while U.S. officials have stated no imminent kinetic action is planned. These economic, diplomatic, and positioning measures form the primary drivers of trader assessments around the likelihood and timing of any U.S. military strikes.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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