US military pressure on Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an oil embargo, secondary tariffs on supplier nations, and an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuban policies. Recent developments include the May indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, expanded US surveillance overflights and naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group in the Caribbean, and reported contingency planning by US Southern Command, alongside leaked intelligence alleging Cuban drone acquisitions potentially targeting US assets. Cuban officials have rejected the claims, warned of severe consequences from any intervention, and engaged in limited backchannel talks while facing acute fuel shortages and blackouts. These steps, combined with presidential rhetoric framing Cuba as a follow-on priority after Venezuela and amid ongoing Iran tensions, sustain trader focus on whether maximum-pressure tactics will produce escalation or concessions by year-end without a triggering event.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$5,782,632 交易量
2026-12-31
12月31日
39%
$5,782,632 交易量
12月31日
$3,604,945 交易量
39%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US military pressure on Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an oil embargo, secondary tariffs on supplier nations, and an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuban policies. Recent developments include the May indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, expanded US surveillance overflights and naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group in the Caribbean, and reported contingency planning by US Southern Command, alongside leaked intelligence alleging Cuban drone acquisitions potentially targeting US assets. Cuban officials have rejected the claims, warned of severe consequences from any intervention, and engaged in limited backchannel talks while facing acute fuel shortages and blackouts. These steps, combined with presidential rhetoric framing Cuba as a follow-on priority after Venezuela and amid ongoing Iran tensions, sustain trader focus on whether maximum-pressure tactics will produce escalation or concessions by year-end without a triggering event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
市场开放时间： Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
交易量
$5,782,632结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.US military pressure on Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an oil embargo, secondary tariffs on supplier nations, and an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuban policies. Recent developments include the May indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, expanded US surveillance overflights and naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group in the Caribbean, and reported contingency planning by US Southern Command, alongside leaked intelligence alleging Cuban drone acquisitions potentially targeting US assets. Cuban officials have rejected the claims, warned of severe consequences from any intervention, and engaged in limited backchannel talks while facing acute fuel shortages and blackouts. These steps, combined with presidential rhetoric framing Cuba as a follow-on priority after Venezuela and amid ongoing Iran tensions, sustain trader focus on whether maximum-pressure tactics will produce escalation or concessions by year-end without a triggering event.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$5,782,632结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US military pressure on Cuba has intensified since the January 2026 capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro, with the Trump administration imposing an oil embargo, secondary tariffs on supplier nations, and an executive order declaring a national emergency over Cuban policies. Recent developments include the May indictment of former Cuban President Raúl Castro, expanded US surveillance overflights and naval deployments such as the USS Nimitz carrier group in the Caribbean, and reported contingency planning by US Southern Command, alongside leaked intelligence alleging Cuban drone acquisitions potentially targeting US assets. Cuban officials have rejected the claims, warned of severe consequences from any intervention, and engaged in limited backchannel talks while facing acute fuel shortages and blackouts. These steps, combined with presidential rhetoric framing Cuba as a follow-on priority after Venezuela and amid ongoing Iran tensions, sustain trader focus on whether maximum-pressure tactics will produce escalation or concessions by year-end without a triggering event.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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