The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to hike the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—its first increase since 2023—anchors current trader sentiment for the rate path before 2027. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, prompted the unanimous move and updated projections signaling potential further tightening. The effective federal funds rate has since settled near 3.88%, with the September dot plot median at 4.15% for year-end 2026. Solid economic growth, resilient labor markets, and elevated uncertainty continue to support a higher-for-longer stance, while the October 28 and December 9 FOMC meetings, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhat will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
$1,846,872 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
↑ 5.5%
3%
↑ 5.25%
3%
↑ 5.0%
2%
↑ 4.75%
4%
↑ 4.5%
25%
↑ 4.25%
83%
↓ 3.25%
4%
↓ 3.0%
2%
↓ 2.75%
2%
↓ 2.5%
1%
↓ 2.25%
2%
↓ 2.0%
3%
↓ 1.75%
1%
↓ 1.5%
2%
↓ 1.25%
2%
↓ 1.0%
4%
↓ 0.75%
1%
↓ 0.5%
3%
↓ 0.25%
2%
↓ 0%
2%
$1,846,872 Vol.
↑ 5.5%
$55,489 Vol.
3%
↑ 5.25%
$142,579 Vol.
3%
↑ 5.0%
$19,789 Vol.
2%
↑ 4.75%
$80,692 Vol.
4%
↑ 4.5%
$41,000 Vol.
25%
↑ 4.25%
$130,212 Vol.
83%
↓ 3.25%
$81,683 Vol.
4%
↓ 3.0%
$320,110 Vol.
2%
↓ 2.75%
$366,465 Vol.
2%
↓ 2.5%
$225,937 Vol.
1%
↓ 2.25%
$41,840 Vol.
2%
↓ 2.0%
$21,511 Vol.
3%
↓ 1.75%
$13,136 Vol.
1%
↓ 1.5%
$28,330 Vol.
2%
↓ 1.25%
$5,186 Vol.
2%
↓ 1.0%
$2,331 Vol.
4%
↓ 0.75%
$741 Vol.
1%
↓ 0.5%
$107,217 Vol.
3%
↓ 0.25%
$132,417 Vol.
2%
↓ 0%
$21,203 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to hike the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—its first increase since 2023—anchors current trader sentiment for the rate path before 2027. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, prompted the unanimous move and updated projections signaling potential further tightening. The effective federal funds rate has since settled near 3.88%, with the September dot plot median at 4.15% for year-end 2026. Solid economic growth, resilient labor markets, and elevated uncertainty continue to support a higher-for-longer stance, while the October 28 and December 9 FOMC meetings, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Market Opened: Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET
Volume
$1,846,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to hike the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—its first increase since 2023—anchors current trader sentiment for the rate path before 2027. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, prompted the unanimous move and updated projections signaling potential further tightening. The effective federal funds rate has since settled near 3.88%, with the September dot plot median at 4.15% for year-end 2026. Solid economic growth, resilient labor markets, and elevated uncertainty continue to support a higher-for-longer stance, while the October 28 and December 9 FOMC meetings, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,846,872End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Federal Reserve's September 16, 2026, decision to hike the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—its first increase since 2023—anchors current trader sentiment for the rate path before 2027. Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year, fueled by energy price shocks from Middle East geopolitical tensions, prompted the unanimous move and updated projections signaling potential further tightening. The effective federal funds rate has since settled near 3.88%, with the September dot plot median at 4.15% for year-end 2026. Solid economic growth, resilient labor markets, and elevated uncertainty continue to support a higher-for-longer stance, while the October 28 and December 9 FOMC meetings, alongside incoming CPI and employment data, represent key near-term catalysts that could shift implied probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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