Recent inflation data showing PCE at 3.7% for 2026 and core at 3.4%, well above the 2% target, combined with solid GDP growth projections around 2.3% and unemployment near 4.1%, have driven the Fed's September 25-basis-point hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range. The September SEP median now points to a 4.1% funds rate by year-end 2026, implying at least one additional hike, with markets pricing an 88% probability of further tightening before December. Trader sentiment reflects this hawkish tilt, as the labor market remains resilient and officials emphasize price stability over near-term easing. Key upcoming catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings, where incoming CPI, employment, and growth data could shift the implied rate path for 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFOMC raises federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% to combat elevated inflation
↑ 4.25% surges to 79%64%
In September 2026, the Fed unanimously voted to increase the target range by 25 basis points, citing persistent inflation above target, which significantly boosted market expectations for the 4.25% outcome and reduced probabilities for lower rate outcomes.
FOMC reportedly raises target range by 25 basis points
↑ 4.25% surges to 84%59%
The supplied FedRateCalc summary says the September 15–16 FOMC voted 12–0 to raise the range by 25 basis points, citing elevated inflation. This directly increased the chance of reaching the 4.25% upper-bound threshold.



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