The recent 25 basis point hike to a 3.75–4.00% federal funds target range at the September 2026 FOMC meeting, driven by persistent 3.4% inflation and solid growth, anchors current trader views on rate paths before 2027. With the effective rate at 3.88% and the dot plot signaling a median 4.1% endpoint for 2026 plus stability near that level into 2027, sentiment centers on whether sticky core PCE and resilient labor data prompt one more hike by December or hold steady. October 28 and December 9 meetings, alongside upcoming CPI and employment releases, represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around potential 4.25% highs or 3.75% floors. Market-implied odds reflect real capital reflecting these near-term policy risks rather than longer-term easing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

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