The September 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00% reflects sticky inflation, with recent PCE readings near 3.6-3.7% well above the 2% goal, alongside resilient GDP growth near 2.3% and unemployment holding around 4.1%. Traders in related prediction markets now price limited further tightening this year—favoring a hold at the October 27-28 meeting but assigning meaningful odds to another 25 bp move by December—while assigning over 95% probability to zero rate cuts through early 2027. Key upcoming catalysts include the October and December FOMC meetings plus fresh CPI and PCE releases that could shift the implied policy path relative to the median dot-plot projection of 4.1% by year-end.