Fed Chair Powell (May 2026 press conference): “Will remain vigilant;

↓ 2.5% dips to 10%1%

no emergency cuts anticipated” – reaffirmed a cautious stance, pushing the|

Market sharply lowers probability for 3.25% outcome amid stronger-than-expected labor data and Fed officials’ remarks emphasizing inflation risks

↓ 3.25% plunges to 44%22%

Market sharply lowers probability for 3.25% outcome amid stronger-than-expected labor data and Fed officials’ remarks emphasizing inflation risks

Fed maintains federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75% with divided votes; Governor Miran votes to cut rates by 25 basis points, signaling ongoing internal Fed debate

↑ 5.25% plunges to 7%16%

The May 2026 decision to hold rates with dissent against cuts caused a quick market reassessment, lowering the probability of reaching 5.25% again.

| Schwab reports four policymakers dissented to the April pause, underscoring uncertainty and reducing hopes of a rapid cut to 3 % |

↓ 3.0 % drops to 10%6%

| Schwab reports four policymakers dissented to the April pause, underscoring uncertainty and reducing hopes of a rapid cut to 3 % |

Federal Reserve maintains target federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with nearly all voting members supporting the decision and signaling a pause in rate changes for the foreseeable

↓ 1.5% rises to 8%1%

Federal Reserve maintains target federal funds rate at 3.5%-3.75%, with nearly all voting members supporting the decision and signaling a pause in rate changes for the foreseeable future

Federal Reserve maintains target range at 3.5%-3.75%, with dissenters preferring a rate cut, but majority holds steady

↓ 2.25% rises to 8%1%

The Fed’s decision to hold rates steady despite some dissent reinforced the view that rates would not drop to 2.25% imminently, keeping the market’s probability low.

Reserve Bank of Australia signals end of rate cuts and possible future hikes due to inflation picking up, reflecting a global tightening bias that likely influenced U.S. market

↓ 2.75% dips to 10%3%

Reserve Bank of Australia signals end of rate cuts and possible future hikes due to inflation picking up, reflecting a global tightening bias that likely influenced U.S. market sentiment on Fed cuts

Federal Reserve holds benchmark interest rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% in April meeting

↑ 4.75% jumps to 9%5%

The Fed's April 2026 meeting resulted in no rate change, despite some dissent for a rate cut, reflecting ongoing divisions and cautious optimism about economic growth, which caused a modest rebound in the market's probability for the 4.75% rate.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid solid economic activity but high uncertainty from Middle East developments; notable dissent with some members voting to lower rates

↑ 5.25% surges to 23%19%

The April 2026 pause, combined with geopolitical uncertainty and dissent within the Fed, briefly increased market odds for a higher rate, reflecting uncertainty about future hikes.

| Fed holds rates steady amid dissent, with Powell signalling he will stay on the Board indefinitely |

↓ 3.0 % drops to 16%7%

| Fed holds rates steady amid dissent, with Powell signalling he will stay on the Board indefinitely |

Market briefly spikes to 45% on speculation of Fed policy shift but quickly reverses

↑ 4.25% surges to 45%36%

Market briefly spikes to 45% on speculation of Fed policy shift but quickly reverses

Mixed economic reports and cautious Fed commentary on inflation risks cause market to reduce odds of rate falling to 3.25%

↓ 3.25% drops to 65%13%

Mixed economic reports and cautious Fed commentary on inflation risks cause market to reduce odds of rate falling to 3.25%

| Fidelity reports the Fed’s April 2026 meeting left rates unchanged, confirming a pause and pushing the “Yes” probability to a historic low ||

↓ 2.5% drops to 9%7%

| Fidelity reports the Fed’s April 2026 meeting left rates unchanged, confirming a pause and pushing the “Yes” probability to a historic low ||

Fed signals caution amid inflation and labor market data, reducing expectations for aggressive cuts

↓ 1.25% plunges to 4%19%

Economic data and Fed comments dampened hopes for rapid rate declines, causing a sharp drop in the probability.

Federal Reserve Beige Book (April 2026): “Economic activity remains solid,|

↓ 2.5% dips to 11%3%

Federal Reserve Beige Book (April 2026): “Economic activity remains solid,|

| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 6%1%

| Treasury market volatility spikes after unexpected rise in core PCE to 2.8 %, prompting analysts to downgrade near‑term cut forecasts |

Fed signals patience and data-dependence in policy, with some easing expectations returning as inflation shows signs of moderation

↓ 3.25% jumps to 71%8%

Fed signals patience and data-dependence in policy, with some easing expectations returning as inflation shows signs of moderation

Market reacts to Fed communications and economic data suggesting slower pace of cuts, causing a temporary spike in ↓ 1.25% probability

↓ 1.25% surges to 30%26%

Heightened speculation about potential easing led to a sharp but short-lived increase in the probability.

| Kiplinger commentary notes that inflation expectations drifted lower but the Fed still judged reserves “ample,” reinforcing a hold stance |

↓ 3.0 % drops to 27%11%

| Kiplinger commentary notes that inflation expectations drifted lower but the Fed still judged reserves “ample,” reinforcing a hold stance |

Economic data shows resilience in activity but inflation remains elevated, leading to sharp market drop in probability for 3.25% outcome

↓ 3.25% plunges to 62%22%

Economic data shows resilience in activity but inflation remains elevated, leading to sharp market drop in probability for 3.25% outcome

Fed holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid ongoing economic uncertainty and Middle East conflict impact

↑ 4.75% rises to 4%1%

The Fed's decision to maintain rates in March 2026, citing solid economic activity but cautious outlook due to geopolitical risks, stabilized the market probability at low levels, with some officials signaling possible future rate moves depending on inflation.

Equals Money: “FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50‑3.75 % and signals no cuts before year‑end” – the clear pause further eroded the 2.5 % cut probability |

↓ 2.5% drops to 14%8%

Equals Money: “FOMC holds rates steady at 3.50‑3.75 % and signals no cuts before year‑end” – the clear pause further eroded the 2.5 % cut probability |

| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |

↓ 2.25% dips to 7%2%

| Fed minutes from March 2026 meeting note “cautious path” and suggest only one 25 bps cut possible in 2026, pushing 2.25 % target further out of reach |

FOMC minutes show market-implied federal funds rate path shifted higher, with rate cuts not fully

↓ 2.25% dips to 12%4%

Minutes revealed that futures and options markets raised near-term rate expectations, pushing back anticipated easing and lowering the probability of rates hitting 2.25% soon.

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty and resilient labor market, with no rate cuts in the near term expected

↓ 1.5% dips to 6%3%

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75% amid inflation uncertainty and resilient labor market, with no rate cuts in the near term expected

| Redbridge reports the mid‑March 2026 FOMC meeting paused, keeping rates at 4.25 %‑4.50% after a split vote |

↓ 3.0 % plunges to 40%30%

| Redbridge reports the mid‑March 2026 FOMC meeting paused, keeping rates at 4.25 %‑4.50% after a split vote |

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid split views and persistent inflation above target, causing market to reassess timing of next cut

↓ 3.25% drops to 84%9%

Fed holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid split views and persistent inflation above target, causing market to reassess timing of next cut

Sharp

↓ 3.0% plunges to 67%15%

Fed officials, including dissenters, voiced concerns about inflation remaining stubbornly high and the risk of losing credibility, dampening expectations for aggressive rate cuts and triggering a sharp.

| CNBC minutes reveal that without a restart of quantitative easing, reserves could fall, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut further ||

↓ 2.5% dips to 16%3%

| CNBC minutes reveal that without a restart of quantitative easing, reserves could fall, limiting the Fed’s ability to cut further ||

| Reuters analysis shows the Fed’s “deep divisions” after the December cut, suggesting only one more cut next year |

↓ 3.0 % dips to 82%2%

| Reuters analysis shows the Fed’s “deep divisions” after the December cut, suggesting only one more cut next year |

| Reuters notes the Fed’s “no‑risk‑free path” comment and the continuation of a cautious stance, dampening hopes for a deeper cut ||

↓ 2.5% drops to 19%6%

| Reuters notes the Fed’s “no‑risk‑free path” comment and the continuation of a cautious stance, dampening hopes for a deeper cut ||

| NPR article describes a divided Fed that cut rates again despite stubborn inflation, but the cut was only 25 bps, keeping the target above 2.5 % ||

↓ 2.5% rises to 25%4%

| NPR article describes a divided Fed that cut rates again despite stubborn inflation, but the cut was only 25 bps, keeping the target above 2.5 % ||

TradingEconomics (Feb 2026 CPI): “Core CPI up 0.6 % month‑over‑month, annual rate 3.2 %” – higher‑than‑expected inflation reinforced a tighter policy outlook |

↓ 2.5% drops to 21%5%

TradingEconomics (Feb 2026 CPI): “Core CPI up 0.6 % month‑over‑month, annual rate 3.2 %” – higher‑than‑expected inflation reinforced a tighter policy outlook |

| U.S. Bank reports the Fed held rates steady at the April meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut, underscoring a likely policy pause ||

↓ 2.5% plunges to 21%16%

| U.S. Bank reports the Fed held rates steady at the April meeting, with only one dissenting vote for a cut, underscoring a likely policy pause ||

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the first meeting of 2026, signaling a pause after three cuts and emphasizing data dependency, which further reduced market

↓ 2.75% drops to 10%8%

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the first meeting of 2026, signaling a pause after three cuts and emphasizing data dependency, which further reduced market odds of rates falling to 2.75%

U.S. Labor Department (Jan 2026 jobs report): “Non‑farm payrolls rise 250 k, unemployment falls to 3.9 %” – stronger labor market reduced expectations of aggressive easing |

↓ 2.5% drops to 30%9%

U.S. Labor Department (Jan 2026 jobs report): “Non‑farm payrolls rise 250 k, unemployment falls to 3.9 %” – stronger labor market reduced expectations of aggressive easing |

Federal Reserve holds rates steady at 3.50%-3.75%, signaling pause after three cuts in 2025

↓ 1.25% dips to 7%2%

The Fed’s decision to pause rate cuts and assess incoming data reinforced market views that rates would not fall to 1.25% soon.

| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |

↓ 2.25% dips to 9%2%

| Fed’s January 2026 meeting holds rates at 3.5 %–3.75% and signals “meeting‑by‑meeting” approach, dampening expectations of aggressive easing |

| U.S. Bank notes that the Fed began buying short‑term Treasury bills in December 2025 to keep short‑term rates near the target range |

↓ 3.0 % drops to 81%8%

| U.S. Bank notes that the Fed began buying short‑term Treasury bills in December 2025 to keep short‑term rates near the target range |

Market reacts to Fed's cautious outlook and no immediate further rate cuts, with the federal funds rate held steady near 3.5%-3.75% and inflation slowing but still above target

↓ 1.5% dips to 9%2%

Market reacts to Fed's cautious outlook and no immediate further rate cuts, with the federal funds rate held steady near 3.5%-3.75% and inflation slowing but still above target

Equals Money: “FOMC keeps target range at 3.50‑3.75 % at the Jan 2026 meeting” – reaffirmed the hold, pushing the probability of a 2.5 % floor lower |

↓ 2.5% drops to 32%7%

Equals Money: “FOMC keeps target range at 3.50‑3.75 % at the Jan 2026 meeting” – reaffirmed the hold, pushing the probability of a 2.5 % floor lower |

| Chase recap notes the Fed’s third 2025 cut and the emergence of a new chair‑to‑be (Kevin Warsh), reinforcing expectations of a limited‑cut path ||

↓ 2.5% jumps to 37%14%

| Chase recap notes the Fed’s third 2025 cut and the emergence of a new chair‑to‑be (Kevin Warsh), reinforcing expectations of a limited‑cut path ||

Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, citing softening labor market and inflation drifting lower, reinforcing expectations for further cuts

↓ 3.25% rises to 93%4%

Fed cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, citing softening labor market and inflation drifting lower, reinforcing expectations for further cuts

Fed rate cut to 3.6% highlights ongoing internal disagreements and cautious outlook

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%2%

The December rate cut and accompanying dissent underscored the Fed’s cautious stance amid weak hiring and inflation concerns, reinforcing market skepticism about rates rising to 4.25%. (Source: Jacksonville News)

| CNBC reports that the Fed’s decision left the lower bound at 3.5 %, dampening expectations of a faster slide toward 3 % |

↓ 3.0 % jumps to 73%6%

| CNBC reports that the Fed’s decision left the lower bound at 3.5 %, dampening expectations of a faster slide toward 3 % |

| Fed minutes show the December cut was “finely balanced” and some members could have voted to keep rates unchanged ||

↓ 2.5% rises to 23%4%

| Fed minutes show the December cut was “finely balanced” and some members could have voted to keep rates unchanged ||

Kiplinger (Dec 2025 meeting): “Dot‑plot shows median expectation of just one 25‑bp cut in 2026” – market optimism about a larger cut faded, driving the|

↓ 2.5% plunges to 39%18%

Kiplinger (Dec 2025 meeting): “Dot‑plot shows median expectation of just one 25‑bp cut in 2026” – market optimism about a larger cut faded, driving the|

| Fed minutes reveal a “finely balanced” December cut and a split over whether to keep rates unchanged |

↓ 3.0 % dips to 67%1%

| Fed minutes reveal a “finely balanced” December cut and a split over whether to keep rates unchanged |

Fed minutes reveal deep divisions on timing and extent of further rate cuts, with some officials dissenting against cuts and others favoring caution

↑ 5.25% dips to 2%4%

The release of December meeting minutes highlighted Fed uncertainty and disagreement, dampening market confidence in a rate rise to 5.25%.

Fed officials showed deep divisions at December meeting, minutes reveal finely balanced decision to cut rates

↑ 4.75% dips to 9%3%

Minutes from the December meeting highlighted a nuanced debate with some officials favoring a pause, reflecting uncertainty about inflation and economic growth, which kept market expectations low for a 4.75% rate.

| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 11%3%

| BLS CPI data shows November inflation at 2.7 % YoY, below expectations, reinforcing dovish outlook but also highlighting limited room for deeper cuts |

FOMC meeting delivers expected 25-basis point rate cut amid inflation moderation but signals caution for 2025

↑ 4.25% dips to 8%1%

The Fed cut rates again but emphasized a cautious approach due to slower disinflation progress and economic uncertainties, tempering expectations for aggressive rate hikes and keeping the probability low. (Source: BitDelta)

Release of delayed November jobs report confirms labor market weakness with modest job gains and rising unemployment, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance and limiting further

↓ 2.75% drops to 18%13%

Release of delayed November jobs report confirms labor market weakness with modest job gains and rising unemployment, supporting the Fed’s cautious stance and limiting further rate cut expectations

FOMC minutes reveal a wait-and-see approach with most members favoring gradual rate cuts but some dissent preferring no change or larger cuts, increasing market debate on pace of

↓ 3.25% rises to 89%2%

FOMC minutes reveal a wait-and-see approach with most members favoring gradual rate cuts but some dissent preferring no change or larger cuts, increasing market debate on pace of easing

Federal Reserve announces resumption of Treasury bill purchases ($40 billion/month) to support liquidity

↓ 1.25% rises to 8%4%

The Fed’s move to buy short-term Treasuries was seen as easing monetary conditions, briefly boosting expectations for rate cuts.

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive time in 2025 to 3.50%-3.75% target range, with divided FOMC vote and signals of limited further cuts

↓ 1.25% drops to 4%6%

The Fed’s third cut was expected but the divided vote and cautious forward guidance reduced the likelihood of deeper cuts, pushing down the probability.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates for the third consecutive time, lowering benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75% amid weak labor market and inflation concerns

↑ 5.25% dips to 6%4%

The December 2025 rate cut, despite internal dissent and limited data, reinforced expectations of a lower peak rate, pushing market probability further down.

| Fed cuts the benchmark rate by 0.25 % to a 3.50 %‑3.75 % range, the first cut of 2025, amid a sharply divided vote |

↓ 3.0 % dips to 68%4%

| Fed cuts the benchmark rate by 0.25 % to a 3.50 %‑3.75 % range, the first cut of 2025, amid a sharply divided vote |

Federal Reserve cuts rates for third straight time amid limited data from government shutdown

↓ 3.0% jumps to 83%10%

The Fed lowered its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, marking the third consecutive cut in 2025 despite delayed inflation and employment data due to a six-week government shutdown. The move supported expectations of further easing, pushing the.

Fed Chair Powell signals pause after third rate cut, emphasizing data dependency

↓ 3.0% drops to 75%8%

Powell indicated the Fed was well positioned after the third cut and would wait to assess economic data before further moves, tempering enthusiasm for additional cuts and causing a.

RBC Economics: “Fed ends 2025 with a 25‑bp cut but dissent reflects growing divide” – the cut to 3.50‑3.75 % was the only reduction in 2025, signaling limited room for deeper cuts

↓ 2.5% drops to 28%7%

RBC Economics: “Fed ends 2025 with a 25‑bp cut but dissent reflects growing divide” – the cut to 3.50‑3.75 % was the only reduction in 2025, signaling limited room for deeper cuts |

Federal Reserve cuts rates for the third consecutive meeting, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.5%-3.75%

↑ 4.75% drops to 7%5%

The Fed's third straight rate cut in December 2025, reducing rates by another 0.25 points, confirmed a dovish stance amid economic headwinds and delayed key data, further reducing expectations for a rate rise to 4.75%.

Fed cuts rates again by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, with dissenting votes reflecting uncertainty;

↓ 3.25% jumps to 87%5%

announces reserve management purchases to maintain ample bank reserves

| Fed delivers a 25 bps cut to 3.5‑3.75 % but three members dissent, suggesting a pause after this cut ||

↓ 2.5% drops to 19%12%

| Fed delivers a 25 bps cut to 3.5‑3.75 % but three members dissent, suggesting a pause after this cut ||

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.50%-3.75%, the third consecutive cut in 2025, amid divided committee votes and ongoing inflation concerns;

↓ 2.75% drops to 31%14%

Fed signals this may be the last cut for a while, tempering market expectations

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.5%-3.75%, third cut in 2025, but signals cautious approach to future cuts

↓ 2.25% rises to 22%4%

Despite the cut, the Fed indicated a higher bar for future cuts and a wait-and-see stance, with dissenters opposing the move, which tempered expectations for a rapid fall to 2.25%.

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.6%, revealing deep divisions among officials

↑ 4.25% dips to 9%3%

The Fed’s third rate cut in 2025 lowered the target range to 3.6%, but a 9-3 vote showed significant dissent, reflecting uncertainty about the economic outlook and future policy. This division contributed to a continued decline in the market’s expectation of reaching 4.25%. (Source: Jacksonville News)

Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 0.25% to 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, signaling a "hawkish cut" with only one more reduction expected in 2026 and resuming Treasury securities

↓ 1.5% dips to 11%3%

Federal Reserve cuts interest rate by 0.25% to 3.5%-3.75% in a 9-3 vote, signaling a "hawkish cut" with only one more reduction expected in 2026 and resuming Treasury securities purchases to ease funding market strains

September PCE inflation report shows inflation at 2.8%, above the Fed’s 2% target, contributing to uncertainty about the extent of rate cuts needed

↓ 2.75% drops to 45%7%

September PCE inflation report shows inflation at 2.8%, above the Fed’s 2% target, contributing to uncertainty about the extent of rate cuts needed

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, signaling start of rate-cutting cycle amid cooling economic momentum and inflation concerns

↓ 3.25% surges to 82%31%

Federal Reserve cuts federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25%, signaling start of rate-cutting cycle amid cooling economic momentum and inflation concerns

Core PCE inflation data points to persistent

↑ 4.25% rises to 12%2%

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, Core PCE, came in higher than expected, indicating inflation remains sticky. This raised doubts about further rate cuts and supported a more cautious Fed stance, slightly stabilizing the market

November labor market data shows employers shed 32,000 jobs and unemployment rises to 4.6%, indicating a cooling labor market;

↓ 2.75% drops to 52%9%

CPI inflation eases to 2.7% year-over-year, reinforcing expectations for Fed easing but with caution

Federal Reserve begins back-to-back-to-back rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, lowering the target range from previous highs but signaling a cautious approach to

↓ 1.5% plunges to 14%37%

Federal Reserve begins back-to-back-to-back rate cuts in September, October, and December 2025, lowering the target range from previous highs but signaling a cautious approach to further cuts

Release of October FOMC minutes reveals rising disagreement over further easing after the October cut, with slowing job growth but inflation still above 2%, increasing market

↓ 2.75% jumps to 61%12%

Release of October FOMC minutes reveals rising disagreement over further easing after the October cut, with slowing job growth but inflation still above 2%, increasing market uncertainty about the pace of future cuts

Many Fed policymakers opposed December rate cut as FOMC voted 10-2 to lower rates to 3.75%-4.00% range

↑ 4.75% plunges to 18%32%

The FOMC cut rates by 0.25 percentage points in November 2025, but the vote was split with two dissents, indicating uncertainty and division about future policy, which led to a sharp drop in the market's probability for the 4.75% outcome.

FOMC minutes reveal division over future interest rate cuts amid persistent inflation concerns

↑ 4.25% plunges to 10%40%

The minutes from the October FOMC meeting showed policymakers split on the pace of rate cuts, with some urging caution due to ongoing inflation pressures. This uncertainty reduced market confidence in aggressive rate hikes, contributing to a sharp drop in the probability of hitting 4.25%. (Source: Financial Times via Callisto Capital)

| Reuters reports many Fed participants opposed the November cut, highlighting deep division and raising doubts about further large cuts ||

↓ 2.5% dips to 31%4%

| Reuters reports many Fed participants opposed the November cut, highlighting deep division and raising doubts about further large cuts ||

FOMC cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% amid divided views on future policy

↓ 2.25% plunges to 29%21%

The Fed lowered rates but the minutes revealed unusual division among policymakers, with some favoring tighter and others looser policy, signaling uncertainty and reducing confidence in a sharp rate cut to 2.25% soon.

Federal Reserve cuts interest rates despite concerns over inflation and public trust risks; divided committee signals uncertainty about future rate direction

↑ 5.25% plunges to 11%39%

The Fed cut rates in November 2025 amid caution about inflation risks and public trust, with many policymakers favoring cuts but some preferring to hold steady, triggering a sharp drop in market odds for a 5.25% rate.

Fed minutes reveal division as policymakers cut rates despite inflation concerns

↓ 3.0% surges to 72%21%

The Federal Reserve cut interest rates in November 2025 amid a divided committee, with some members warning that cuts risked entrenched inflation and loss of public trust. This cautious but decisive cut raised market expectations for further cuts, boosting the ↓ 3.0% outcome.

Forbes: “Fed expected to keep rates near 3.75‑4 % as it eyes a path toward 3 % in 2026” |

↓ 2.5% drops to 45%6%

Forbes: “Fed expected to keep rates near 3.75‑4 % as it eyes a path toward 3 % in 2026” |

Fed officials debate rate cuts amid mixed economic signals and government data delays; some policymakers advocate for continued cuts while others resist

↑ 5.25% dips to 10%1%

Ahead of the November cut, Fed members showed division on rate policy due to weak job creation and delayed data from the government shutdown, contributing to market volatility.

| NEC Director Kevin Hassett says he would vote for a half‑point Fed rate cut if he were at the meeting |

↓ 3.0 % jumps to 61%10%

| NEC Director Kevin Hassett says he would vote for a half‑point Fed rate cut if he were at the meeting |

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% in a 10-2 vote during a meeting affected by a government shutdown delaying key data;

↓ 2.75% drops to 49%12%

the Fed also announced plans to halt quantitative tightening, signaling ongoing easing despite divided views

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00% amid government shutdown and data uncertainty

Despite limited economic data due to the shutdown, the Fed proceeded with a rate cut but signaled uncertainty, leading to modest market reaction.

| Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.75‑4.00 % range, signaling the start of a rate‑cut cycle ||

↓ 2.5% plunges to 35%16%

| Fed cuts rates 25 bps to 3.75‑4.00 % range, signaling the start of a rate‑cut cycle ||

| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |

↓ 2.25% dips to 14%4%

| Release of October 2025 FOMC minutes shows “strongly differing views” and doubts about a further December cut |

| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |

↓ 2.25% drops to 18%9%

| Fed cuts rates by 25 bps to 3.5 %–3.75% in December 2025 meeting, citing weakening labour conditions |

Federal Reserve cuts benchmark interest rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4.75%-5.0%, marking the first cut since 2020 amid steady inflation decline and economic expansion;

↓ 2.75% jumps to 57%7%

this shift signaled the start of easing and influenced market expectations for further cuts

Federal Reserve cuts rates by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% target range

The Fed’s "risk management cut" aimed to support the labor market but maintained a cautious stance, with one dissenting vote for a larger cut.

| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |

↓ 2.25% dips to 27%3%

| Fed holds rates steady at 4.25 %–4.5% in first 2025 meeting, signalling pause after earlier cuts |

Federal Reserve announces third rate cut of 2024, lowering target range to 4.25%-4.5% but signals fewer cuts in 2025

↓ 1.25% plunges to 8%42%

The Fed cut rates by 0.25% amid mixed economic signals but cautioned that only two cuts are expected in 2025, tempering expectations for aggressive easing.

| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |

↓ 2.25% dips to 30%4%

| Fed cuts rates a third consecutive time to 3.5 %–3.75% (25 bps) – third cut of the year |

| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |

↓ 2.25% plunges to 34%16%

| Fed lowers target range to 4.5 %–4.75% in November meeting, citing easing labour market |