Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

icon for What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

$1,855,649 Vol.

Dec 30, 2026
Polymarket

$1,855,649 Vol.

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$55,489 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.25%

$142,579 Vol.

3%

↑ 5.0%

$19,789 Vol.

2%

↑ 4.75%

$80,692 Vol.

4%

↑ 4.5%

$41,320 Vol.

43%

↑ 4.25%

$137,375 Vol.

90%

↓ 3.25%

$81,690 Vol.

3%

↓ 3.0%

$320,111 Vol.

1%

↓ 2.75%

$366,465 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.5%

$225,937 Vol.

1%

↓ 2.25%

$41,840 Vol.

2%

↓ 2.0%

$22,445 Vol.

3%

↓ 1.75%

$13,136 Vol.

1%

↓ 1.5%

$28,333 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.25%

$5,186 Vol.

2%

↓ 1.0%

$2,331 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.75%

$741 Vol.

2%

↓ 0.5%

$107,565 Vol.

3%

↓ 0.25%

$132,417 Vol.

3%

↓ 0%

$21,203 Vol.

2%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—anchors current trader positioning for the "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" market. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end 2026 and 2027 federal funds rate to 4.1%, up 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from June, reflecting stronger GDP growth forecasts, a lower unemployment rate projection of 4.1%, and core PCE inflation stuck near 3.4%. This higher-for-longer path aligns with market-implied futures pricing limited additional tightening before year-end followed by steady policy. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings plus upcoming CPI, employment, and GDP releases that will test whether inflation moderates or sustains the elevated rate consensus into 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,855,649
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The September 16, 2026 FOMC decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00%—the first hike since 2023—anchors current trader positioning for the "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" market. The accompanying Summary of Economic Projections revised the median year-end 2026 and 2027 federal funds rate to 4.1%, up 0.3 and 0.5 percentage points respectively from June, reflecting stronger GDP growth forecasts, a lower unemployment rate projection of 4.1%, and core PCE inflation stuck near 3.4%. This higher-for-longer path aligns with market-implied futures pricing limited additional tightening before year-end followed by steady policy. Key near-term catalysts include the October 27-28 and December 8-9 FOMC meetings plus upcoming CPI, employment, and GDP releases that will test whether inflation moderates or sustains the elevated rate consensus into 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
Volume
$1,855,649
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070be91...

Related

icon for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2027?

Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2027?

75%
icon for Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?

72%
icon for Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the January 2027 meeting?

57%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by "↑ 4.25%" at 92%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" has generated $1.9 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" is "↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↑ 4.25%" at 92%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.