Trump's continued active engagement in the presidency, including midterm campaigning, executive actions, and public statements projecting through 2029, underpins the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health crises, scandals, or institutional pressures have emerged to alter this trajectory, consistent with the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits absent extreme circumstances. Speculation from political opponents citing fatigue or electoral setbacks remains unconfirmed by primary developments. Trader consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes and the absence of catalysts in the current term. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden medical events, unforeseen legal developments, or post-midterm power erosion severe enough to prompt departure before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
4% 概率
$537,399 交易量
$537,399 交易量
2026-12-31
是
4% 概率
$537,399 交易量
$537,399 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's continued active engagement in the presidency, including midterm campaigning, executive actions, and public statements projecting through 2029, underpins the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health crises, scandals, or institutional pressures have emerged to alter this trajectory, consistent with the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits absent extreme circumstances. Speculation from political opponents citing fatigue or electoral setbacks remains unconfirmed by primary developments. Trader consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes and the absence of catalysts in the current term. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden medical events, unforeseen legal developments, or post-midterm power erosion severe enough to prompt departure before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
交易量
$537,399结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's continued active engagement in the presidency, including midterm campaigning, executive actions, and public statements projecting through 2029, underpins the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health crises, scandals, or institutional pressures have emerged to alter this trajectory, consistent with the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits absent extreme circumstances. Speculation from political opponents citing fatigue or electoral setbacks remains unconfirmed by primary developments. Trader consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes and the absence of catalysts in the current term. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden medical events, unforeseen legal developments, or post-midterm power erosion severe enough to prompt departure before the deadline.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$537,399结束日期
2027-01-01市场开放时间
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETTrump's continued active engagement in the presidency, including midterm campaigning, executive actions, and public statements projecting through 2029, underpins the 96.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026. No verified health crises, scandals, or institutional pressures have emerged to alter this trajectory, consistent with the historical rarity of voluntary presidential exits absent extreme circumstances. Speculation from political opponents citing fatigue or electoral setbacks remains unconfirmed by primary developments. Trader consensus reflects the low base rate for such outcomes and the absence of catalysts in the current term. Realistic shifts could still arise from sudden medical events, unforeseen legal developments, or post-midterm power erosion severe enough to prompt departure before the deadline.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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