Trump's commanding 2024 election win and vigorous post-election transition—marked by cabinet nominations, policy announcements on immigration and tariffs, and team-building—drive the 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on his commitment to a full second term. Absent any official statements signaling an early exit, health issues, or escalating legal pressures, odds align with historical precedents where presidents endure controversies without stepping down. The Supreme Court's recent immunity ruling bolsters stability by limiting prosecutorial threats. Potential shifters include late-breaking scandals, intraparty revolt, or health events, though none have emerged in the past 30 days amid inauguration preparations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$403,505 交易量
$403,505 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
是
$403,505 交易量
$403,505 交易量
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's commanding 2024 election win and vigorous post-election transition—marked by cabinet nominations, policy announcements on immigration and tariffs, and team-building—drive the 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on his commitment to a full second term. Absent any official statements signaling an early exit, health issues, or escalating legal pressures, odds align with historical precedents where presidents endure controversies without stepping down. The Supreme Court's recent immunity ruling bolsters stability by limiting prosecutorial threats. Potential shifters include late-breaking scandals, intraparty revolt, or health events, though none have emerged in the past 30 days amid inauguration preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
市场开放时间： Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ET
交易量
$403,505结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trump's commanding 2024 election win and vigorous post-election transition—marked by cabinet nominations, policy announcements on immigration and tariffs, and team-building—drive the 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on his commitment to a full second term. Absent any official statements signaling an early exit, health issues, or escalating legal pressures, odds align with historical precedents where presidents endure controversies without stepping down. The Supreme Court's recent immunity ruling bolsters stability by limiting prosecutorial threats. Potential shifters include late-breaking scandals, intraparty revolt, or health events, though none have emerged in the past 30 days amid inauguration preparations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
交易量
$403,505结束日期
Dec 31, 2026市场开放时间
Jul 25, 2025, 2:47 PM ETResolver
0x157Ce2d67...Trump's commanding 2024 election win and vigorous post-election transition—marked by cabinet nominations, policy announcements on immigration and tariffs, and team-building—drive the 93.5% implied probability against resignation by December 31, 2026, reflecting trader consensus on his commitment to a full second term. Absent any official statements signaling an early exit, health issues, or escalating legal pressures, odds align with historical precedents where presidents endure controversies without stepping down. The Supreme Court's recent immunity ruling bolsters stability by limiting prosecutorial threats. Potential shifters include late-breaking scandals, intraparty revolt, or health events, though none have emerged in the past 30 days amid inauguration preparations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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