Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including capture of the Mokha port and Perim (Mayun) Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 10–11, 2026, have tightened control over a critical chokepoint handling 10–12% of global trade and rerouted Saudi oil exports after the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These advances elevate the risk of kinetic strikes on commercial vessels, driving elevated implied probabilities in related Polymarket contracts and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel while U.S. diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon. Freight rates on China–Saudi routes have risen 37% since late July amid rerouting around Africa. Traders are pricing in sustained supply-chain pressure and potential further escalation ahead of any Saudi or international response, with market-implied odds reflecting real-capital consensus on heightened disruption likelihood through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$276,135 交易量
2026-07-24
July 24
Yes
July 25
No
July 26
No
July 27
No
July 28
No
July 29
No
7月30日
否
7月31日
否
8月1日
否
8月2日
否
8月3日
否
8月4日
是
8月5日
否
8月6日
否
8月7日
否
8月8日
否
8月9日
否
8月10日
否
8月11日
是
8月12日
否
8月13日
否
8月14日
否
8月15日
否
8月16日
否
8月17日
是
8月18日
否
8月19日
否
8月20日
否
8月21日
否
8月22日
否
8月23日
否
8月24日
是
8月25日
否
8月26日
否
8月27日
否
8月28日
否
8月29日
否
8月30日
否
8月31日
否
$276,135 交易量
July 24
$9,613 交易量
Yes
July 25
$1,934 交易量
No
July 26
$9,536 交易量
No
July 27
$1,435 交易量
No
July 28
$6,945 交易量
No
July 29
$1,859 交易量
No
7月30日
$2,730 交易量
否
7月31日
$2,355 交易量
否
8月1日
$2,562 交易量
否
8月2日
$2,754 交易量
否
8月3日
$4,060 交易量
否
8月4日
$4,544 交易量
是
8月5日
$97,178 交易量
否
8月6日
$3,323 交易量
否
8月7日
$1,915 交易量
否
8月8日
$15,269 交易量
否
8月9日
$7,108 交易量
否
8月10日
$2,398 交易量
否
8月11日
$10,681 交易量
是
8月12日
$2,505 交易量
否
8月13日
$1,215 交易量
否
8月14日
$6,420 交易量
否
8月15日
$6,523 交易量
否
8月16日
$3,529 交易量
否
8月17日
$15,828 交易量
是
8月18日
$2,842 交易量
否
8月19日
$3,213 交易量
否
8月20日
$4,112 交易量
否
8月21日
$6,407 交易量
否
8月22日
$433 交易量
否
8月23日
$2,566 交易量
否
8月24日
$6,425 交易量
是
8月25日
$5,124 交易量
否
8月26日
$1,920 交易量
否
8月27日
$2,432 交易量
否
8月28日
$3,013 交易量
否
8月29日
$6,347 交易量
否
8月30日
$2,618 交易量
否
8月31日
$4,463 交易量
否
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including capture of the Mokha port and Perim (Mayun) Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 10–11, 2026, have tightened control over a critical chokepoint handling 10–12% of global trade and rerouted Saudi oil exports after the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These advances elevate the risk of kinetic strikes on commercial vessels, driving elevated implied probabilities in related Polymarket contracts and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel while U.S. diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon. Freight rates on China–Saudi routes have risen 37% since late July amid rerouting around Africa. Traders are pricing in sustained supply-chain pressure and potential further escalation ahead of any Saudi or international response, with market-implied odds reflecting real-capital consensus on heightened disruption likelihood through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
市场开放时间： Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET
交易量
$276,135结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including capture of the Mokha port and Perim (Mayun) Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 10–11, 2026, have tightened control over a critical chokepoint handling 10–12% of global trade and rerouted Saudi oil exports after the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These advances elevate the risk of kinetic strikes on commercial vessels, driving elevated implied probabilities in related Polymarket contracts and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel while U.S. diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon. Freight rates on China–Saudi routes have risen 37% since late July amid rerouting around Africa. Traders are pricing in sustained supply-chain pressure and potential further escalation ahead of any Saudi or international response, with market-implied odds reflecting real-capital consensus on heightened disruption likelihood through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date AST (UTC+03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Houthi forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Houthi operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM AST, material ambiguity remains as to whether the incident can be attributed to Houthi operatives, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, AST. If, at such time, attribution of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
交易量
$276,135结束日期
2026-08-31市场开放时间
Jul 23, 2026, 10:39 AM ET已提议结果: Yes
无争议
最终结果: Yes
Recent Houthi territorial gains along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including capture of the Mokha port and Perim (Mayun) Island in the Bab al-Mandeb Strait on September 10–11, 2026, have tightened control over a critical chokepoint handling 10–12% of global trade and rerouted Saudi oil exports after the Strait of Hormuz disruption. These advances elevate the risk of kinetic strikes on commercial vessels, driving elevated implied probabilities in related Polymarket contracts and pushing Brent crude above $100 per barrel while U.S. diesel prices exceeded $6 per gallon. Freight rates on China–Saudi routes have risen 37% since late July amid rerouting around Africa. Traders are pricing in sustained supply-chain pressure and potential further escalation ahead of any Saudi or international response, with market-implied odds reflecting real-capital consensus on heightened disruption likelihood through year-end.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题